Electoral political polls today July 2, 2023
POLITICAL ELECTION SURVEYS – The Schlein effect has ended in the Democratic Party with the dem returning below 20%: this is what emerges from the latest political electoral polls processed by Ipsos.
According to theresearch institute directed by Nando Pangoncelli, in fact, the Democratic Party drops by one percentage point compared to last month, thus falling back to 19.4 percent.
The 5 Star Movement, on the other hand, is gaining support again, growing by more than one percentage point (1.2%) thus rising to 16.2%.
Among the other minor centre-left parties, however, Italia Viva gets 4.4% while Action returns to 3.1%. Numbers still far from the center-right which registers, adding up all the parties that are part of the coalition, 46.7% of the votes.
Brothers of Italy, in fact, remains the first party with 29.4 percent, while Lega and Forza Italia are credited with 9.1% and 7.3 percent respectively.
HOW POLLS ARE MADE
Electoral and political polls are carried out by polling companies according to precise scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analysed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for political parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the adult Italian population, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls. This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible.
Generally a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the indicated margin of error is 3 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that the pollsters face the greatest difficulty. Interviews for electoral political polls are usually carried out with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion poll companies rely on specialized companies.
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