Analyst Kozhukhova predicted the exchange rate of the ruble, taking into account the decline in oil prices
Elena Kozhukhova, an analyst at VELES Capital, spoke about the risk of ruble weakening in the medium term. About it writes prime agency.
The analyst identified three factors that could affect this: falling oil prices due to recession risks, updating the fiscal rule, and access for non-residents from friendly countries to exchange trading. “These factors are likely to keep the Russian currency from updating its peaks since 2015,” Kozhukhova said.
Despite this, the analyst stressed that it is still too early to talk about the collapse of the ruble due to the persistence of foreign exchange restrictions, as well as the high current account and trade balance surpluses that have been maintained, which make such a scenario unlikely.
The medium-term weakening of the ruble may become noticeable if the dollar is fixed above 65 rubles, and the euro – above 70.5 rubles. However, as Kozhukhova notes, this is not yet happening. “Thus, the ruble will certainly continue to fluctuate close to the levels of early August and may even make attempts to strengthen,” the analyst concluded.
Earlier, Oleg Syrovatkin, a leading analyst at the Otkritie Investments global research department, said that he allowed the ruble to fall in the event of a 20 percent reduction in oil production in Russia. In his opinion, finding an alternative oil market will make the weakening of the Russian currency not so noticeable.
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