lThe crisis of Venezuelan democracy continues to worry the region. The international community was pressing for a date for the corresponding presidential elections to be held this year. And, although it was achieved, the conditions are not entirely “fair or free”, since a week ago the opposition was prevented from nominating its candidate and, on the contrary, those the regime wanted were accepted.
At the same time as asking for a date, the request, which was reflected in part in the Barbados Agreement, signed between the opposition and the government in October 2023 under the mediation of Norway and the accompaniment of USAwas added the authorization of possible presidential candidates, such as the case of Maria Corina Machador, who the people chose in primaries to face Nicolás Maduro.
The only thing that was fulfilled was the definition of the date, scheduled for July 28. Of the rest, the world saw how on March 25, at 11:57 at night, the Fuerza Vecinal and Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) party registered the governor of Zulia, Manuel Rosales, given the impossibility of nominating Corina Yoris, Machado's standard bearer and that in theory would also be registered by UNT and the Democratic Unity Roundtable, which in an extension of eight hours, was forced to put the name of Edmundo González, “so as not to leave the position empty,” he told him. to EL TIEMPO a source.
The intention of registering González was that, during the substitutions process, which should begin at the beginning of April, the change could be made and Yoris introduced, but Chavismo's number two, God given hairgave sentence.
“They can support those who are already nominated, read the laws, sorry, gentlemen opponents. Support Maduro because (…) You have 13 candidates to choose from,” Cabello stated, which means that substitutions can only be made with those already registered.
What does all this mean for the region?
Under these conditions, the outlook seems favorable for Nicolás Maduro to be re-elected for the period 2025-2030. Rosales' inscription has been described by Machado as a “betrayal”, and until the opposition does not support the candidate Edmundo González There are few options for the opposition, despite the fact that surveys such as Datanalisis assure that 70 percent of the population wants political change.
Faced with this situation, Venezuela's main allies, Colombia and Brazil, issued unexpected statements questioning the undemocratic procedures, unleashing friction between the three countries.
“The right-wing governments and the cowardly left are not capable of condemning the coups or maneuvers that threaten peace. They remain silent in a complicit manner,” said Maduro, who claims that they have tried to kill him in recent months. The president added that Vente Venezuela, the movement of the disqualified María Corina Machado, was “terrorist.”
Colombian President Gustavo Petro responded in X: “There is no cowardly left, there is the probability of, through deepening democracy, changing the world. Chávez's magic was to propose democracy and change in the world. Today's revolution is: transforming the world by deepening democracy.”
But how did Petro dare to point out Maduro? For the Venezuelan political scientist Ángel Medina, beyond the “friendship” that may exist between the leaders, Maduro, between the dilemma of maintaining power or reintegrating into the international community, something in which Petro helped, prefers to remain in the presidential chair, since being accepted in the region requires commitments and democratic values that he is not willing to fulfill.
“That is why the short circuits with Lula and Petro are happening, because it is in their best interest for Maduro to reinsert himself to generate stability in Venezuela, which means less migration, greater commercial exchange and a strengthened regional security scheme,” Medina explains to TIME.
But Medina is also realistic and assures that, although the international community is “concerned about Venezuela,” at this moment there is an enormous crisis of global governance evidenced in conflicts such as Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas. “Putin won unopposed in Russia, and nothing happens,” she pointed out.
To vote or not to vote?
The years have shown that not voting was the worst decision in Venezuela, since this allowed Chavismo to cover all the spaces and now it is difficult to recover them. The last competitive election in the country could be said to have been in 2015, when the opposition swept through parliament and Chavismo, demoralized, preferred to set up a parallel assembly. and not return to their seats.
Since then, the opposition has relied on the international community. This led to the 2018 elections, in which Maduro won, being declared by parliament as invalid and therefore justifying a power vacuum that ended with Juan Guaidó's self-proclamation as president, an interim government was started, 60 Countries recognized it and the US intensified sanctions on the country, but none of this worked to displace Maduro.
The Biden administration has already spoken about what these elections would be like. “The CNE's acceptance of only those opposition candidates with whom Maduro and his representatives feel comfortable goes against competitive and inclusive elections,” warned State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller.
In response, Venezuela stated that the United States is trying to ignore and delegitimize the presidential elections on July 28.
For Medina, abstention is not an option at this time. The director of the Datanalisis firm, Luis Vicente León, thinks the same, but he believes that the risk is latent due to the lack of motivation in the midst of what has happened with his leadership options. “The government clearly encourages this to happen,” León tells EL TIEMPO.
León adds that the fracture that may be generated in the opposition makes a scenario of rejection of the vote probable, but “It is important to say that the situation is conditioned by a strong desire for change, about 70 percent, and learning about past experiences of abstention”.
For the analyst, the negative experiences of the past represent an opportunity because the voting intention is higher than in 2018 and makes it “more difficult for the Government” to achieve an abstention strategy.
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