The furious debate on the new pacts that the PSOE is negotiating with the Catalan independence movement does not cause a major shake-up in the electoral forecasts for now, but the PP stands out as the possible great beneficiary of this turbulent atmosphere. Since the elections of last July 23, the Popular Party has shown, month after month, a gradual upward trend, to the point that in a hypothetical electoral repetition they would more than double their advantage over the Socialists, according to the November barometer of 40dB . for EL PAÍS and SER. Despite this improvement in Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party, the survey – whose internal data can be consulted on the websites of both media – suggests that the right wing as a whole would still not reach an absolute majority in Congress, due to the bad timing of Vox.
For the first time since July, the monthly survey by the demographic institute detects signs of wear and tear in the PSOE, subjected to very harsh artillery, especially intense from the right and judicial sectors, in the face of its project to amnesty the accused of the processes Catalan independence movement. The small increases that the socialists had achieved in the two months following 23-J – especially at the expense of Sumar – have vanished. In this last barometer they lose almost one point and are half a point below what they obtained in the elections: 31.2% now compared to 31.7% then.
The trend is the opposite in the PP, which has advanced another half point in the last month to complete an increase of 1.6 since the elections. In this way, Feijóo would climb today to 34.7% of the votes, and the meager advantage that he achieved in July, of just 1.4 points, would now be much more comfortable, at 3.5. In terms of seats, the popular ones would add 146 – nine more than now – compared to 122 for the socialists, who, despite everything, would increase by one compared to 23-J.
The bad news for the PP is that its advance would be fruitless, because the entire right would still not reach the absolute majority necessary to govern. To the 172 deputies who supported Feijóo’s failed investiture attempt last month (PP, Vox, Canary Coalition and UPN) only two more would now be added. They would total 174, compared to 176 – the exact absolute majority – of the conglomerate of formations that are negotiating a new Government chaired by Pedro Sánchez.
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On the right there is a certain regrouping of forces around its most classic representative, as the PP wins one in 10 voters who three months ago chose the Vox ticket. The rise of Feijóo’s team does not compensate for the decline of Santiago Abascal’s team, according to the survey. The extreme right party achieved great success in the streets last week with a rally in Madrid against the amnesty project – coinciding with the dates on which the poll was carried out, between October 27 and 30 – but, for now , seems to be more aware of the internal conflicts that have occurred within its ranks. If in the previous barometer it had experienced a certain rebound, in the November one it fell again. Since July, Vox would miss out on more than one point and 7 of the 33 seats it won then. And he would lose the third electoral position in favor of Sumar.
Although the coalition led by Yolanda Díaz continues to cede almost 9% of its recent voters to the PSOE, in the last month it has recovered ground (six tenths) at the same rate as the socialists are losing it. Today it would stand at 11.7%, six tenths less than on 23-J, which would make it lose 4 of its 31 current deputies.
The vote that each party retains
Voters who continue to vote for the same
party they voted for in July
The vote that each party retains
Voters who continue to vote for the same
party they voted for in July
The vote that each party retains
Voters who continue to vote for the same party they voted for in July
The fierce dialectical war that the right has declared against the amnesty does not allow the PP to bite into the socialist electorate for now. The PSOE manages to avoid the feared flight of votes towards the popular ones that the polls did detect last spring, weeks before the elections, and that at the moment of truth did not materialize, one of the reasons why they became frustrated Feijóo’s triumphant expectations. The 40dB study. indicates that this loss of the socialists continues to be very controlled, barely 3% of those who opted for their ballot on 23-J, a flow that is compensated by the gains of Sánchez’s party at the expense of Sumar.
The survey does detect a danger for the left that it had apparently managed to ward off three months ago: the possible demobilization of its electorate. The phenomenon equally affects the two parties that aspire to repeat the Government coalition and has increased in the last month. Around 12% of those who chose the PSOE or Sumar ballots state that they would not know what to do in the event of a possible electoral repetition, a rate that is double that registered among the conservative electorate.
Among the forces of peripheral nationalism, only a novelty, although with possible symbolic relevance: Junts per Catalunya would take advantage of its privileged negotiating position with Sánchez, win a seat and recover, to the detriment of ERC, the lost hegemony in the Catalan independence camp.
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