The social democrat Bernardo Arévalo, who promises a frontal fight against corruption, won the presidency of Guatemala, according to official results after the count of 95% of the polling stations. Right-wing president Alejandro Giammattei reacted quickly. “I also congratulate Bernardo Arévalo and extend the invitation to start the orderly transition, the day after the results are made official,” he said on his X (formerly Twitter) account.
«Arévalo’s victory means a defeat of the old politics, of the ruling party and of those nostalgic for the Cold War. A different era is beginning for our country and we will have to be mobilized for a peaceful transition,” independent analyst Miguel Ángel Sandoval told the AFP agency.
Son of a president who left his mark, Arévalo was the favorite to turn the government around. Leader of the Semilla party, his wide triumph is attributed to the fact that he generated hope for change in a country mired in poverty, violence and corruption, which lead thousands of Guatemalans to emigrate each year.
But he is viewed with apprehension by the political and business elite that runs the country, accused of corruption. The prosecution tried to sideline him from the ballot to prevent him from coming to power. «His diplomatic experience and as a parliamentarian give him [a Arévalo] a base of knowledge and experience to form a broad government team. This increases its legitimacy,” said the rector of the University for Peace of Costa Rica, Francisco Rojas.
«It will be necessary to see if Sandra Torres admits her defeat, but it will be a long period before the inauguration [el 14 de enero de 2024]. These will be complex times,” he added. Torres had the silent support of Giammattei and the government’s allied powerful business elite. He leads the National Unity of Hope (UNE), a center-left party that has turned to the right in recent years. It is socially conservative, but at the same time it promised direct aid to the poor, who represent 60% of the population.
Torres also received the silent support of several right-wing parties, evangelical pastors and the prosecutor’s office, which has tried to outlaw the Semilla de Arévalo party. “The traditional forces have opted for Torres, since Arévalo is seen as a risk to the continuity of the system,” explained political analyst Arturo Matute.
Authoritarianism
A 64-year-old sociologist, Arévalo is the son of the first democratically elected president in Guatemala, Juan José Arévalo (1945-1951), and promises to follow his father’s path with a strong social and change agenda.
In addition to the crusade against Semilla, the prosecutor’s office has been carrying out a campaign against journalists and judicial officials who have fought corruption for a couple of years, and has imprisoned or forced into exile about thirty of them.
Analysts point out that Guatemala is experiencing a retreat towards authoritarianism as the establishment reacted to the CICIG, an entity created by the UN that investigated government corruption between 2007 and 2019.
In a strongly conservative and religious country, Arévalo and Torres ruled out legalizing equal marriages or abortion, which is only allowed if there is a risk to the mother.
The 67-year-old former first lady tried to discredit her rival by saying that he is an atheist – although he is a Catholic like her – that he wants to legalize abortion, unions between people of the same sex and drugs. She also called Semilla’s followers “hollows” (homosexuals).
He assures that Arévalo plans to carry out expropriations and that he will turn Guatemala “into a Venezuela and a Cuba.” Arévalo, for her part, presented her as “the candidate of lies and misinformation.”
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