Dina Mahmoud (London)
“It is the most prominent and best opportunity to bring peace after years of battles in Yemen,” this is how experts and observers of conflict developments in this country describe the current situation there, following the accelerated steps taken by the Presidential Leadership Council on the way to activating its role and exercising its functions, in light of the steadfastness of the truce. Today, Monday, it enters its second month.
After years of relative stagnation and the continuation of the fighting without any glimmer of hope in sight, the first week of April witnessed the entry into force of the most comprehensive truce of its kind in 6 years, and the formation of the Presidential Council, which, from the first day of taking the constitutional oath, launched its movements inside and outside Yemen, with the aim of Finding a way out of the conflict that is sweeping the country as a result of the bloody Houthi coup, which took place in the fall of 2014.
According to analysts, the synchronization between these two developments at the political and field levels constitutes the most important transformation in Yemen, since the war erupted in its lands more than 7 years ago, especially since this new council includes figures with significant influence on the Yemeni scene, representing areas of different from the country.
Although the life of the “presidential” did not exceed a few weeks, he was able to obtain the support of the main regional powers in the region, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which received its president, Rashad Al-Alimi and its seven members, and expressed their support for the council, which was entrusted with the powers of former President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, Including negotiating with various parties, in order to spare the blood of Yemenis, and to bring the curtain down on the war.
In statements published by the “War on the Rocks” website, which analyzes files related to national security, especially in the United States, Western analysts said that the administration of President Joe Biden and the international community should support the current Yemeni truce and work to renew it, when the time comes for its expiry. On the second of next June, especially since the cessation of hostilities allows the delivery of humanitarian aid to millions of Yemenis afflicted by the Houthi aggression.
The terms of the armistice allow the arrival of ships carrying oil derivatives to the port of Hodeidah, in addition to preparing the atmosphere for talks about opening roads leading to the city of Taiz, which has been besieged by the Houthi gang for years, in addition to providing the opportunity to operate limited commercial flights to and from Sanaa airport, which has not been activated. After, because of the attempts made by the “Houthi” militants to manipulate the identity of those who will be allowed to travel, on these flights.
At the same time, the analysts pointed out the need for US and international efforts to focus as well on expanding the scope of any future talks aimed at bringing peace in Yemen to include various groups and actors in society.
This may also include the United States providing security guarantees to the Gulf partners, to reassure them of any agreement that may be reached during the next stage to end the Yemeni war.
In this context, Western analysts highlighted the importance of the financial support that Saudi Arabia and the UAE pledged to provide to the Yemenis and the Central Bank in their country, which led to the recovery of the Yemeni riyal within a short period, about 25% of its value, which positively affected the prices of basic commodities and supplies, which had jumped Several times, throughout the war years.
Although many Yemeni, regional and international forces are skeptical about the extent of the Houthi terrorist militia’s commitment to the requirements of the current truce in full, given the coup’s violations of its provisions on more than one front, over the past four weeks, there are hopes among Western diplomats that a temporary cessation of battles will provide, The opportunity for the Yemeni parties to negotiate a permanent ceasefire that will lead to a comprehensive peace agreement.
The course of things on the ground since the beginning of this year has proven the failure of the Houthi gang’s bet on the military option, after its militants suffered defeats on several fronts, especially in the governorates of Shabwa and Marib, which these militias were seeking to seize to strengthen their negotiating position in any talks that might take place in the future. .
These defeats forced the terrorist militias to accept the truce brokered by the United Nations, and according to many represented a well-deserved respite for the Yemeni people, who were brought down by the Houthi coup prey to war, epidemics, diseases and food scarcity, which has claimed the lives of 377,000 Yemenis, 60% of them since the start of the battles. They died as an indirect result of the conflict.
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