The Popular Party would reach the absolute majority in the Regional Assembly if regional elections were held today, reaching 23 seats and 47.7% of the votes, according to the Spring Barometer prepared by Cemop (Murcian Studies Center for Public Opinion ) for the Regional Assembly. The Popular Party would experience a significant rise compared to the May elections of last year by taking a seat from the PSOE and another from Vox. This is the first barometer in a non-electoral period that predicts the absolute majority of a party in the Region since the single constituency system was adopted. The national political scenario is one of the factors that have influenced the results of this barometer, which are better for the regional PP than those of the previous winter survey.
The demoscopic work of the Cemop Special Research Group of the University of Murcia, which presented its results this Thursday at the Regional Assembly, is based on 818 surveys carried out between March 5 and 22, in a context also highly influenced by the countryside protests.
Seat allocation
and estimation
of vote
Results
elections
autonomous
May 2023
Seat allocation
and estimation
of vote
Results
elections
autonomous
May 2023
Attribution
of seats and
estimate
of vote
Results
elections
autonomous
May 2023
The vote estimate places the PP at 47.7%, almost five points more than in the May elections. It would obtain 23 seats at the expense of the PSOE, which will drop from 13 to 12 deputies; and Vox, which would go from 9 to 8. Podemos would maintain its two seats.
The socialists would lose 1.3 points, so their fall would not be very significant even if they gave up votes to the popular ones. Vox would fall 1% compared to the May elections, although this decline would be more pronounced if the Winter Barometer is taken as a comparison, in which Abascal's party rose to 10 seats and exceeded 20% in the vote estimate. Podemos maintains its two deputies and improves 0.8 points compared to May.
In relation to the assessment of leaders, Fernando López Miras remains in the lead, although he does not approve as in previous barometers. He obtains a 4.8, compared to 5.3 in past polls. José Vélez and María Marín obtain a 3.6; and Antelo a 3.5. The three political leaders also decline in rating.
Level of knowledge
of political leaders (%)
(00.0: Comparison with winter 2024)
Source: CEMOP Winter Barometer 2023
Level of knowledge
of political leaders (%)
(00.0: Comparison with winter 2024)
Source: CEMOP Winter Barometer 2023
Degree of knowledge of political leaders (%)
(00.0: Comparison with winter 2024)
Source: CEMOP Winter Barometer 2023
Respondents consider that politicians represent the main priority in the Region, followed by employment and water. The Mar Menor and the environment is in eighth place on the list of problems, with 4.4 points.
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