The victory of Hurricane Donald Trump in the United States exactly one month ago shook the transatlantic waters, leaving important aftershocks on community soil. The initial reaction of the EU was to appeal to the unity of Europeans and to emphasize the need to be stronger and more independent. Four weeks later, the community bloc returns another very distant image to that fortress. The community block suffers and looks weakened. The governments of the Franco-German axis have collapsed and the new European Commission, championed by Ursula von der Leyen, is the least supported in history.
Late Wednesday afternoon, the conservative Michel Barnier He became the most fleeting French prime minister since the Second World War and the first to lose a motion of censure in the National Assembly since 1962. The experiment of Emmanuel Macron had failed after just three months of life. The motion proposed by the New Popular Front and supported by the extreme right of Marine Le Pen It was approved by 331 votes, well above the 288 that were needed. The trigger was the budget plan with a marked accent of austerity, unaffordable for the majority of the Chamber.
The second economic power in the Eurozone follows in the footsteps of neighboring Germany. Shortly after Donald Trump’s victory, the chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the electoral advance. According to national forecasts, the German locomotive economy will start the new year in a technical recession. Berlin has not managed to recover from the consequences of the war in Ukraine and, especially, its enormous dependence on Russian energy. Paris, for its part, is facing paralysis in the processing of budgets for 2025 and its budget deficit has skyrocketed.
The crisis in Germany It has a more economical nature. The processing of the budgets was also the tip of the iceberg that brought down the tripartite coalition government. The general elections will be held on February 23. The polls give victory to the Christian Democratic Union (UCD), led by Friedrich Merz. And although the German lung has become the sick person of Europe, the country’s political tradition anticipates a changing of the guard without too many shocks. France’s crisis is, however, a more political crisis. Macron was in Saudi Arabia when his Government was blown up. Its credibility and image are at historic lows. Many analysts describe as superb the partisan strategy of a president of the Republic whose party and management are increasingly in question.
After the resounding victory of Le Pen’s far-right in the last European elections in June, Macron slammed the table by dissolving the National Assembly. Liberal and leftist forces joined forces to stop the ultra rise. With the results of the legislative elections in hand, the tenant of the Elysée entrusted the Government to the conservative Barnier. It had the approval of the extreme right and the French president justified himself with the argument that a government in progressive hands would not be able to provide the country with political and financial stability. The result of the experiment is history: the French Executive was born wounded by a death that took a few weeks to confirm while the streets lived with a feeling of disappointment and betrayal.
The first impact of the political chaos in France has its echo thousands of kilometers away. While the French country woke up with the hangover of the government hurricane, Ursula von der Leyen He took a flight to Uruguay with the intention of signing—more than 20 years later—the free trade agreement with Mercosur. The countries of the Latin American bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) have given their approval from Montevideo. The white smoke of the end of the negotiations could arrive in the next few hours. And this movement threatens to unleash important consequences in France. Its political, agricultural and social sector is massively opposed to this agreement. The European signature ignoring France could trigger a rise in anti-European and far-right sentiments.
The chaos that prevails in the Franco-German axis comes at a difficult time for the EU inside and outside its borders. On December 1, the Von der Leyen Commission 2.0 began, which will guide the community giant for the next five years. The College of Commissioners, in which the Spanish Teresa Ribera It holds the second most powerful position only under the shadow of the German, passed the scrutiny of the European Parliament with a historic minority of votes.
The newly inaugurated legislature is expected to be angry, tense, polarized and very marked by the clashes of the European People’s Party with the ultra forces. From El Salvador to India, populisms are going through one of their best moments in the world. And Europe, from Italy to Hungary, is no exception. Far-right forces have the greatest power since World War II. On Sunday, the European project faces another litmus test in Romania, where the anti-NATO and pro-Russian candidate could win the presidential elections. Calin Georgescu.
The turbulence also resonates outside the confines of Europe. An unpredictable Trump will land in the White House on January 20. His return threatens the transatlantic trade relationship, the future of NATO, the multilateral order or the future of the war in Ukraine. Meantime, Vladimir Putin has taken the lead in the fight and in Brussels they recognize that this could be the most complicated winter for kyiv since the beginning of the invasion. With all this in the background and with a crisis of political leadership, Europe faces an era of turbulence.
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