The Polish president, Andrzej Duda, commissioned Mateusz Morawiecki, from the ultra-conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), currently in power, to form the government on Monday. The formation of the current prime minister came first in the elections on October 15, but he did not obtain the parliamentary majority necessary to govern. The liberal opposition bloc did, however, exceed the absolute majority. In a situation similar to the failed investiture of Alberto Núñez Feijóo in Spain, PiS faces the almost impossible task of forming an Executive, while the three liberal parties have practically closed a coalition agreement that closes the way to the most right-wing options.
The president’s announcement has ended three weeks of speculation and tension, a mixture of hope and resignation in the field of liberal parties. Duda’s statements before the elections indicated that he would nominate, as was parliamentary custom, the party with the most votes, despite the fact that there is no constitutional mandate that requires him to make that decision. His team continued to insist on that line after the elections, although he recognized that this time the situation was more complicated.
“After calm analysis and consultations, I have decided to entrust the mission of forming a government to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Therefore, I have decided to continue with the good parliamentary tradition, according to which the winning party is the first to be given the opportunity to form a government,” he announced in a televised message that he also shared on the social network formerly Twitter).
The president held a round of consultations with all parties on October 25 and 26. At the end of the meetings he did not announce his decision and his statements left many perplexed. Duda stated that there were “two serious candidates for the position of prime minister”, Morawiecki, currently in office, and Donald Tusk, who is supported by the Civic Coalition, Third Way and the Left. United Right, the coalition led by PiS, “supposes that it will have a majority in the Sejm,” said the leader, who until becoming president was a member of that party.
No party or deputy has expressed support for PiS, which obtained 194 seats in the elections, 37 less than the 231 necessary for an absolute majority. Even if he had privately obtained the full support of the far-right Confederation bench, which in public continues to deny any type of agreement with the party still in Government, the sum of both would be 212, still far from the majority. Some leaders of Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s party have assured that they already have six deputies from other parties willing to support them, without giving more details. Even so, they would still not add up.
PiS has sought the support of the agrarian formation Polish People’s Party (PSL, in its Polish acronym), which is part of the center-right Third Way coalition. Just two days ago, on Saturday, Morawiecki tried to publicly tempt the leader of that formation, Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, saying in an interview that he saw himself perfectly as a minister in a Cabinet led by the agrarian leader. This Monday, Duda also announced that he was appointing PSL deputy Marek Sawicki as president of the Sejm.
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In the same interview, the still prime minister claimed his electoral result, “the best obtained by PiS”, which obtained the support of almost eight million voters. “It is the best result in the history of the Third Polish Republic… after that of PiS in 2019.”
Comfortable absolute majority
The liberal bloc has 248 deputies, a more than comfortable absolute majority. The three formations that make it up—Civic Coalition, a group of parties led by Civic Platform (PO), of the conservative Donald Tusk; Third Way, where together with PSL is Polska 2050; and the Left—have been negotiating a government agreement since practically the day after the elections, which local media report could be presented to you this Thursday.
The conversations between the three parties have taken place in private, but in public they have made sure to show harmony to pressure the president in the face of the decision that he finally announced this Monday. In his appearance on October 26, the president stressed that these formations “do not yet have a formal coalition nor do they have a coalition agreement, so they cannot yet provide the names of the candidates for ministers.” In this way he gave clues about the designation that he has finally made.
The Polish press has leaked some details of the liberal pact, both the programmatic part and the distribution of ministries. According to what they point out, the parties would have agreed on a tax reduction for entrepreneurs and the technology sector, while maintaining the PiS program of aid per child 500+, which grants about 110 euros per child per month and which as of January will rise to 180. The legalization of abortion, which was a central issue in the electoral campaign of Tusk and the Left, would be left out due to the rejection of Third Way, according to those leaks that are not officially confirmed.
The Polish Parliament exhausts its mandate this Friday and on Monday the 13th the new deputies will take office, who will be the ones to vote on Duda’s proposal. Morawiecki must put the Cabinet he intends to form to a vote in the two weeks following the first session of the Sejm. If it fails, Parliament takes the initiative and makes its own proposal. The absolute majority of the liberal bloc would then guarantee an Executive led by Donald Tusk.
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