In previous installments I explained a kind of calendar of the political-electoral route for 2024. I explained it in 3 thirds or semesters, which more or less was the time remaining for the presidential election and many more popularly elected posts next year.
He explained that the first third consisted of the first semester of this year, 2023. From January to June, we will see rearrangements, especially of the political groups and currents within the parties. You know, the photo of such a character in a restaurant with his equals and sending signs of upcoming agreements. Also, there will be politicians who will redouble their efforts in the media and social networks. It is time for positioning and the first agreements. Who will play with whom and why not, even for which game.
The second third is the second semester of the current year. From August to December, those who have “permission” from their political bosses will begin to move even stronger. The knocking against each other will begin. The measurement of what position is enough for each one, and definitely who will have to compete outside or outright, support a project headed by someone else. “Ready for what’s to come” will be the most repeated phrase or its equivalent on these dates.
The first half of 2024 will be the outcome of the political plot that we have apparently been experiencing in advance. It will already be pre-campaign, campaign and the momentum will be at its peak. We will already have definitions and the competition will have come to an end.
That said, just in a matter of time, the alliance (PRI-PAN-PRD) is already losing. Political actors and members are not sure who they will be teaming up with between parties. I already mentioned it, in Sinaloa, in the PAN they are waiting for what will happen with the tricolor. As long as the PRI remains without a leader, those in blue are uncertain about which political group they will deal with to form a competitive alliance.
The jaloneo by the candidacies will be all a problemón. I don’t see PAN easily giving up space in the face of a divided and perhaps weakened PRI party. If before in the tricolor they privileged leading the best districts or municipalities, now that negotiation will be much more complicated.
The electoral bet is on the robust structure of the PRI. That famous machinery that oiled with the drive of a hopeful candidate and the economic investment for the effective operation used to be invincible. Now you don’t see, a priori, that character who offers the necessary motivation or the certainty to receive the support of business women and men.
Today, it seems much more, that the alliance vision is the control of the political institutes to take hold of the multi-member candidacies. There, who wins, are the political groups, then the parties and in the end, the people.
I end by recognizing the capacity and good cadres in the parties that make up the opposition coalition. However, I believe that reality currently offers a bleak picture. They must build a lot in a very short time. Meanwhile, in Morena they all go together, they continue adding (and subtracting ballasts). There are advantages that cannot be denied. For now they await the indication of a leader.
Twitter: @vanessafelixmx
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