In the global temperature increase race, the year 2024 marked the milestone of being the first to exceed 1.5 degrees of heating over the pre -industrial era. It was almost a symbolic issue, since to break the terms of the Paris Agreement and that the effects of climate change are multiplied, this threshold is needed It is reached in the long term, that is, at least for 20 years. Now a study published in ‘Nature Climate Change’ says that the planet has probably already entered that era. Having overcome this threshold for the first time makes it “practically sure” that 2024 is only the first year of that long -term period of 20 years, they say.
The study is published on the day on which countries should have sent their updated greenhouse broadcast cuts to the UN, but Only ten of 200 have fulfilled with the deadline. This update of emission cuts should be used to limit the increase in temperatures, since today the projections say that the planet is heading at 2.8 degrees by the end of the century, which would multiply damage to heat wave forms, increased the increase in sea level or torrential rains.
«Our analysis shows that, unless ambitious emission cuts are implemented, It is practically safe that the first year of the world with a heating of 1.5 ° C (~ 99% on average) falls within the 20 -year period that reaches the heating level of 1.5 ° C «, says the study.
While the first time a certain temperature threshold is exceeded, it is usually thanks to the Natural variability of the weather (with events such as the child, which heats the ocean in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, influencing the climate of the entire planet), they also explain that given the “strong tendency to warming” combined with the relatively low variability in Temporary temperature series, it is “very unlikely that the temperature of a single year will exceed the long -term average.”
For the authors, their study is an “early alert” about what is coming. “In particular, the early alert indicates the beginning of a period in which the climatic impacts of a warmer 1.5 ° can begin to arise, which underlines the urgency of the adaptation action,” they warn. Therefore, they insist that only a cut of greenhouse emissions drastically in the short term has the potential to reduce risks.
«It doesn’t matter how we analyze the global temperature and its evolution in the years that come, that with these new studies and everything we already knew there is now plenty of evidence that the most important objective of the Paris Agreement to limit the temperature increase to 1 , 5 ºC It has been lost. And, unless more aggressive actions are taken in mitigation quickly, the same will happen with the aim of avoiding temperatures below the 2 ° C «, said Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, in statements to SMC.
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