The moment of truth for Bolsonaro, for the ultra generals and for Brazil

The threat of a coup d'état in Brazil was on the radar throughout the mandate of Jair Messias Bolsonaro, 68. The fear materialized on January 8, 2023, when thousands of his followers stormed the heart of this young democracy. For Bolsonarism they were unbridled followers. Vandalism, nothing more. But last Thursday the Federal Police revealed evidence that points to a plot cooked up for months at the very top of the State. At the request of the Supreme Court, investigators released WhatsApp messages and audios, videos and draft decrees that support the accusation that the previous president, four generals in the reserve, an admiral and twenty soldiers and civilian advisors organized a coup to annul the electoral result and prevent Bolsonaro's rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, from returning to the presidency. They are accused of attempted violent abolition of the State, a crime punishable by up to eight years in prison.

The former far-right president was forced to hand over his passport. He is prohibited from leaving the country. The operation Tempus Veritatis It represents the moment of truth for Bolsonaro, for the most ultra generals who accompanied him—as ministers and in the coup adventure—and for Brazil. “The challenges of this investigation have no parallel in the history of Brazil,” he maintains in his editorial this Friday. Or Globe. The most read newspaper calls for “maximum rigor” and “maximum serenity” from investigators and, “if guilt is proven in court, the punishment of those convicted must be severe.”

Those accused are accused of preparing decrees with coup intentions, of organizing as digital militias to spread falsehoods or half-truths that spread the idea that electronic ballot boxes were not safe, of giving operational support to Bolsonaro supporters camped in front of the barracks demanding military intervention. , to put pressure on the high military commanders who refused to join the riot, to use the secret service to illegally spy on, among others, the most powerful judge of the Supreme Court (and most detested by Bolsonaro), Alexandre de Moraes, and to give a legal veneer to what would actually be a breakdown of the constitutional order.

For political scientist Camila Rocha, “the accusations are very serious. It is important to keep in mind that it does not matter whether the coup attempt was carried out or not, there was an intention to perpetrate it, to prevent the free exercise of democracy as the evidence shows.” Eduardo Heleno, professor at the Institute of Strategic Studies of the Fluminense Federal University (no relation to the accused Augusto Heleno, former minister and general), does not rule out that in the coming months Bolsonaro and/or one of the generals will be arrested. On this occasion, only four advisors have been arrested. This specialist believes that, thanks to this police operation, “perhaps more robust evidence of the organization of the coup will emerge.”

Rocha, a researcher at Cebrap (Centro Brasileiro de Análise e Planejamento), adds that she hopes that “all those involved, regardless of their rank, their political power, will be tried and, eventually, punished. For the country it is very important because we have a very harmful legacy, especially in the Armed Forces, of people who are not committed to democracy.” Calls for greater civilian control of the military resurface.

Becoming a martyr

The Government and the highest Court are aware that if Bolsonaro, who feels like a victim of relentless persecution, goes to jail, he would immediately become a martyr. And who knows if that would catapult him back to power, a bittersweet experience that has marked the last years of Lula's life. For this reason, judges have to tread very carefully. Bolsonaro is disqualified from running in elections until 2030, but he has just started holding rallies with his sights set on the municipal elections in October.

Judge Moraes, who leads several cases involving the former president, his son Carlos and other Bolsonaro supporters, keeps an eye on time. He measures his decisions in a way that increases or reduces the pressure on them. But Bolsonaro feels the magistrate's breath on the back of his neck like never before. The Moraes-Bolsonaro duel has echoes of a cockfight. And remember the Sergio Moro-Lula duel in the Lava Jato case, that marked the previous decade. The editorial of State warns this Friday about some of Moraes' vices and their dangers: “Politicization, excess prominence and the spirit of justice (…) always in the name of a good cause. It was that same problem that stained the Lava Jato and made the investigation collapse.”

The Brazil that hates Bolsonaro has been salivating since Thursday while delighting in the details revealed by the investigation (and the resulting memes). The arrest last year of Bolsonaro's private secretary, Lieutenant Mauro Cid, 44, for falsifying the vaccination data of his family and his boss in the official public health registry was a no-brainer. After four months in prison, he was ready to confess. The assistant's mobile phone turned out to be a mine. Conclusive evidence for the police and Judge Moraes. Among them, a draft coup decree delivered to Bolsonaro, who requested some changes to the text. The final version contemplated new elections and arresting Judge Moraes. Afterwards, Bolsonaro met with the commanders of the Army, Aeronautics and Navy. Only the latter embraced the proposal. Admiral Almir Garnier said that his troops were ready if the president signed that decree.

For analyst Heleno, “the important thing is that there were divisions among the generals, there was resistance at the top of the Armed Forces. “A good part of the high command did not join.” He adds that, “if [todos los comandantes] “If they had joined, we would not be where we are today.”

Effective reaction

Since the end of the dictatorship in 1985, Brazilian democracy has never been under an attack of the caliber of this coup attempt. Lula's Government, which was caught by surprise by the assault on Brasilia when some ministers had not even taken office, reacted with enormous effectiveness. He decreed a civil intervention by the security of the Federal District, where the capital is located, and in three hours he had regained control of the situation and arrested dozens of Bolsonaro supporters. The next day he dismantled the coup camp in front of the Army Headquarters in the capital. And two weeks later, Lula suddenly relieved the army commander for lack of trust.

With these new accusations, the case of antidemocratic acts enters a crucial phase. Until now, the only people tried and sentenced to long sentences are ordinary citizens who invaded the Presidency, Congress and the Supreme Court. All civilians. So far no organiser, financier or instigator has taken the stand.

Bolsonaro moves very comfortably in the field of ambiguity. He proclaims this and the opposite without breaking a sweat. During his four years as president (2019-2022) he put Brazil on the verge of a heart attack on several occasions with his coup plots. Immediately, he added that he would always act “within the four lines of the Constitution.” But here no one forgets that he is a retired military man who the Army expelled through the back door at the end of the eighties after threatening to plant bombs to obtain decent salaries for the troops. He managed to become a deputy and, to the surprise of so many, president of the Republic. For three decades he enjoyed parliamentary immunity. That ended. A couple of years ago, at a rally before evangelical leaders, he proclaimed that he had three alternatives for the future: “Go to prison, get killed, or victory. You can be sure tha
t the first alternative does not exist.”

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