French President Emmanuel Macron surprised the world by dissolving the National Assembly and calling early legislative elections in the country after his coalition’s defeat in the European Parliament elections in early June.
Analysts point out that the politician’s objective was to mobilize the French electorate to prevent a victory internally by the right-wing nationalist party National Rally (RN), the winner of the European elections in the country.
It succeeded, partially: even though Macron’s centrist coalition and the left had to resort to a maneuver of massive withdrawal of candidacies in the second round of the legislative elections in France, held on Sunday (7), the RN ended up in third place in number of seats, behind the leftist coalition New Popular Front (NFP) and the president’s group.
However, Macron is far from being able to claim victory. While the NFP won 49 more seats in the National Assembly than in the previous election, held in 2022, and the RN won 53 more seats, the president’s coalition lost 86.
It is worth remembering that, in the National Assembly dissolved in June, Macron’s group, despite having the most seats in the house, no longer held an absolute majority (at least 289 seats) and this caused great difficulties.
Last year, lacking sufficient support to pass a pension reform proposal to raise the minimum retirement age in France from 62 to 64, he resorted to an article in the French constitution that allows the government to enact a measure without legislative approval.
Now, with Macron’s coalition lacking even a relative majority and with the National Assembly split into three large blocs, the prospect is that the political crisis will deepen in France.
In an interview with People’s GazetteFernanda Brandão, coordinator of the international relations area at Faculdade Presbiteriana Mackenzie Rio (FPMR), pointed out that the early legislative elections were a “bluff” by Macron that worked in terms of the president’s objective of stopping the nationalist right (at least as the political group with the most seats in the National Assembly), but failed in his attempt to rescue for his group the absolute majority from the 2017 election and pave the way for the 2027 presidential election.
“There is a sense of worsening economic conditions, at the beginning of the year we had the protests by French farmers. There is the issue of the war in Ukraine and France’s high spending on NATO and [apoio ao] war effort [ucraniano]. All of this creates a perception of declining social conditions and there is also dissatisfaction among part of the electorate with the presence of immigrants in France,” he explained, detailing the message that the polls sent to the Macron government.
Fernanda Brandão pointed out that, in order to try to resolve the political impasse, Macron must try to garner support from the center-left and fragment the NPF.
“He can achieve this, considering the split that exists in this coalition. There are very big differences on the left, some parties have a more radical view, others are more moderate. But, if the message that has become clear is one of dissatisfaction with Macron’s government and with his political base as a whole, I think it will be difficult for any party to ‘sacrifice’ itself, to get closer to his government now,” said the expert.
Despite the great difficulties, Macron will try to at least maintain a “guardian government”, that is, a minimally viable one, until he can call new legislative elections in mid-2025 – French law prevents the dissolution of Parliament and the calling of a new election within a year after this measure is implemented. However, this strategy also brings risks for the president.
“He cannot call new parliamentary elections, so it would be a very limited government, which would remain in place for a year, until new elections could be called. But, in this process, an inefficient government would increase the wear and tear and the feeling of dissatisfaction that already exists and could further strengthen Marine Le Pen’s party,” said Fernanda Brandão.
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