There are fewer and fewer days until Christmas Lottery Draw 2024 and many Spaniards begin to make their pools. They queue for miles at the administrations known for distributing the winning ticket, in other years. And they calculate the numbers that, according to history or the artificial intelligence on duty, have indicated the winner. He December 22 In many homes the expectation is maximum, although the possibility of it touching you is tiny, hope is the last thing that is lost. That’s when calculating probabilities comes into play, even for those most reluctant to numbers.
Laplace’s Rule
Following the plank Laplace’s Rulethe probability that ‘Gordo’ plays is actually 1 in 100,000there are 100,000 numbers of bills that go into the drum, and that translates into 0.001%. Something as likely as going to Lugo, with its 100,000 inhabitants, and the first person we meet there being our acquaintance who lives in the city. And it results from dividing 1 by 100,000. A result that is repeated for the second and third prize. But it increases to 0.00002% in the fourth prize and to 0.00008% in the fifth.
mathematical hope
Another concept to take into account is that mathematical expectation is a factor to take into account. It is a concept used in probability and statistics that refers to the expected value of a random variable. It is calculated by adding the product of each possible outcome of a random variable and its probability of occurrence. With this formula we obtain the relationship between the prize obtained and the probability we have of getting it right.
Winning numbers
The Christmas Raffle offers 193 million tenths this yearwith a broadcast of 193 series (8 more than last year), each with 100,000 issues. The total issuance reaches 3,860 million euros, allocating 70% to prizeswhich is equivalent to 2,702 million euros in prizes.
Always bet on the same number
The superstition of buying the same number every year leads to the hope that one day, sooner or later, it will end up playing. But the sad reality is that if, for example, we buy for 60 years, the same number, the probability that it will be awarded it only increases to 0.0000177%. A slightly less remote possibility.
Buy more Christmas Lottery numbers
According to the calculation mentioned above, applying Laplace’s Rule if buying a number the probability is just 0.00001%.
Buying two, it rises to 0.00002%; and if we purchase three tickets, 0.00003%. As we buy more tenths the probability will increase.
Get a 50% chance of winning ‘El Gordo’ for Christmas
The numbers say that only 12 people out of every 100 participants will receive some type of prize, only five out of 100 will recover their investment and only around two out of every 10,000 buyers will receive any of the 19 prizes.
The professor at the University of Valladolid, Alfonso Jesús Población Sáez, explained to the media that the minimum number of tenths that we should buy to have a 50% chance of obtaining one of the first three prizes, is 20,650. Disbursing 413,000 euros in the process, which is not worth it if we take into account that ‘El Gordo’ carries a prize of €400,000.
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