Late Thursday afternoon the approval of the extension of the banking tax was announced, which will be valid for three years (until 2028) but which will undergo some changes in its structure, to make it more progressive than this one. year, set at 4.8% on profits net of interest and commissions.
Thus, the new structure, consisting of several sections that progressively tax the profits of this sector, from 0% for the first 100 million to 7% for everything that exceeds 5,100 million, has a direct consequence on the impact that each individual would suffer. one of the entities in its benefits. According to Barclays experts, the bank most penalized by this change is CaixaBank, with a 2% cut in its estimated earnings per share for 2025.
This has also been reflected on the stock market, where its shares have dropped more than 5% in just two sessions. For Santander and BBVA The impact will be less since they have a large part of their business outside the national territory and, therefore, the lost profit will only be 0.3% and 0.2%respectively. The market has also reflected this situation in the Cantabrian bank, which lost more than 2% these two days compared to the 0.3% that BBVA rose, conditioned in its case by the open takeover bid for Sabadell.
On the opposite side, The greater progressivity in the brackets of this tax favors smaller bankswho will see their bill alleviated. This is the case, above all, of Unicajawhich will pay 5.9% less of what would enter the treasury with this year’s model. This value rises slightly in these two sessions compared to the 1.8% that the Spanish sector gave. Bankinter and Sabadell They can also celebrate this modification when suffering impacts from the 4.2% and 1.8%respectively, in their EPS, as calculated by Barclays. However, these two titles have fallen on the stock market since the announcement, although less than the industry as a whole.
The new legislation also incorporates a small deduction in corporate tax, equivalent to 25% of what was paid in this new tax, which could reduce the total impact on large banks. “This tax was expected and we believe that it should not be a cause for concern in the market, although the fact of maintaining a tax that can hardly be linked to extraordinary profits can generate uncertainty among shareholders, contributing to a certain degree of stigmatization towards Spanish banks. , especially domestic ones,” they point out at Deutsche Bank.
“Obviously, the final impact should not be too harmful compared to the previous three years, even for the one that is most affected, which is CaixaBank,” the German entity continues. “On the other hand, the banks that had been disproportionately taxed this year have now been treated more fairly, such as Unicaja, so, although maintaining the tax is never good news, at least it does not worsen what exists,” they conclude.
Double digit potentials
Beyond this specific situation, the sector continues to benefit from high interest rates compared to the last decade. However, the expectation that the ECB will accelerate the reduction in the price of money in the coming months has weighed on the price of Spanish banks, which already have at 9% the maximum of the yearachieved in the month of April.
Analysts, however, still see strong potential for revaluation among these companies. In fact, the six banks listed on the Ibex have double digit runs up to their respective average target prices. The one that stands out the most is that of Santander, which today has received a new purchase advice from Morgan Stanley, which has raised it from “hold.” The consensus average sets its valuation 29% above its current price.
It is followed by BBVA, with a 22% being penalized by the takeover bid. Also, above the 20% are those of CaixaBank and Sabadell while analysts expect the smallest increases in Unicaja (15%) and Bankinter (almost a 13%). In this context, analysts recommend buying Sabadell, Caixa and Santander and keeping the shares in the portfolio if they are from BBVA, Unicaja or Bankinter.
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