The Cemop Autumn Barometer gives victory to the popular, although with fewer seats than in the previous poll, while the PSOE does not collect the fruits of discontent over the degradation of the lagoon and remains stagnant
The crisis of the Mar Menor takes its toll on the Popular Party of the Region of Murcia, which slows its growth in the polls and moves away from the absolute majority in the Assembly that would allow it to govern alone. On the other hand, PSOE and Vox do not take advantage of this wear and tear and remain in a situation of stagnation, while Ciudadanos resurrects and Podemos increases their expectations.
These are the main conclusions obtained from the Autumn Barometer of the Murcian Studies Center for Public Opinion (Cemop), presented this Monday at the Regional Assembly.
The PP would be the most voted party if elections were held today, with 39.5% of the votes and 20 seats, four more deputies than it currently has but two less than those granted by the poll last spring. The PSOE would be the second force, with 29.5% of the votes and 14 seats, three less than at present and the same as in the previous barometer. Vox, for its part, would receive the support of 13.5% of voters, which would translate into 6 seats in the Regional Assembly, two more than those obtained in 2019. Unidos Podemos would be the fourth force, with 7.1% of the votes and 3 seats, one more than now and than in the previous poll.
The biggest surprise of the Spring Barometer is that Ciudadanos is reluctant to disappear from the political landscape. 4.7% of voters would vote for the formation, which would translate into 2 seats. Although they are 4 less than in the 2019 elections, it represents a growth compared to last spring’s poll, which left Cs with a single seat and on the verge of disappearance.
However, with this scenario predicted by Cemop, only a regional government of the Popular Party with the support of Vox would be possible, since the sum of PSOE, United We Can and Citizens (19 deputies) is less than the 20 seats of the popular. And a PSOE, United We Can and Vox alliance is totally implausible. The PP-Cs alliance that occurred at the beginning of this legislature (22 deputies) could also be repeated, although it would require the abstention of Vox. This last scenario is also unlikely.
The Autumn Barometer consists of 827 telephone interviews, conducted between October 18 and 28. The margin of error is 3.5%, with a probability of 95.5%.