183 votes. It is the “alternative majority” possible, in the words of the PNV spokesperson, Aitor Esteban, who was made visible this Thursday in Congress. The Basque nationalists, together with Junts, PP, Vox and UPN, repealed the energy tax. It was a rather symbolic vote because the tribute had already been sentenced. But it is a warning to Pedro Sánchez on the eve of the 2025 General Budgets being negotiated, among other measures. With these figures, Alberto Núñez Feijóo would be president of the Government today. And he could win a motion of censure for those that, today, he admits not having numbers.
The last few weeks have confirmed that the majority that Sánchez brought together in 2023 to be re-elected as president has weak foundations when it comes to carrying out specific policies and regulations. The tension between the partners on the left of the Government and those on its right is evident in some votes that touch on ideological and economic issues. And the confrontation has increased at the key moment of the legislature.
The 2025 public accounts will mark the chances of survival of the coalition government. Without Budgets, it will be difficult for Sánchez to avoid an electoral advance in the long run. But it is also the law that will largely determine the ideological orientation of the rest of the legislature. And the partners, antagonistic on some issues, tighten the negotiation.
The battlefield chosen to measure forces has been the tax on extraordinary profits that energy companies have obtained thanks to the fact that prices have skyrocketed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The tax, temporary, has been in force for two years. This year it will have reported 1,164 million euros to the public coffers.
Both the energy tax and the banking tax had to be renewed, and the Government soon became clear that it was not going to have sufficient numbers. The vice president and Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, proposed a broader fiscal package from which she excluded the energy tax at the request of Junts and PNV. In exchange, both agreed to make the banking tax fixed, which was included in the fiscal package.
Pressure from other government partners led Montero to a bilocated scenario. On the one hand, he promised PNV and Junts to legislate the fixed tax on energy companies as law to be able to introduce their requests. Specifically, that it be collected and managed by the Basque and Navarrese provincial treasuries and that investments in decarbonization be taken into account to pay less.
A request, this last one, from Junts. The party led by Carles Puigdemont insists that it cannot be framed in any of the “blocs” that are regularly visible in Congress, and they say that they are not bothered by “labels” either. In this case, Junts justified its position in Repsol’s investments in Tarragona. The company, the main Spanish oil company, is chaired by the former leader of the PNV Josu Jon Imaz.
Junts has already agreed with the PP on another amendment that represents the suspension of the tax on electricity generation that Mariano Rajoy imposed in 2013 to pay the tariff deficit.
Montero agreed at the same time with ERC, EH Bildu, Podemos and BNG to approve a royal decree-law to extend the temporary tax in 2025.
The tension between the partners, especially between PNV and Podemos, was perceived by the PP. Feijóo’s party introduced an amendment in the Senate to the Government’s fiscal package, number 54, which repeals the energy tax. And that is the amendment that this Thursday achieved 183 votes in Congress.
In addition, the PP achieved the support of the same forces for another amendment that introduces a tax exemption for those affected by the DANA of Valencia who receive direct aid from their companies. A Junts amendment was also approved to reduce VAT on yogurts and other fermented milk products to 4% and a final one related to non-professional sports clubs.
This Thursday, the Government reduced the tax impact of the approved amendments. But the political derivative can be relevant. It is now difficult for Montero to comply with his partners on the left since there are legal doubts about the possibility of introducing a new tax through a royal decree-law.
In any case, both the decree-law to extend it and the one that the Government says it will approve next Monday to create it again were destined to be rejected by Congress. This type of legal text requires validation by the Lower House, and the PNV and Junts had already warned that they would not support it.
After the vote, Aitor Esteban appeared before the media in Congress to attack Podemos and issued a warning: “I could present many things in which I believe I would achieve an alternative majority.” Esteban himself said this September that Pedro Sánchez “has a great shield” because “there is no alternative absolute majority”.
The words of the PNV spokesperson do not anticipate a turn by the Basque nationalists. Nor do the PP expect the ‘jeltzales’ to loosen ties with the PSOE for the moment, with whom they govern in Euskadi. This Wednesday, in an informal conversation with journalists, Alberto Núñez Feijóo said that the PNV has become “a structural partner” of the Government, while praising the “coherence” of Junts and the personal treatment with its parliamentary spokesperson, Míriam Nogueras.
But Catalans and Basques have already given notice that their votes for the Government are not committed in any case. Neither do those on the other side. A reflection of the intensity with which the next budget negotiation will be approached.
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