The Russia’s invasion of Ukrainian territory is a bilateral war, until this moment. However, it could especially affect the price of gasoline in our country in the coming weeks, and even the price of food purchased from Europe. Although it is too early to know if this conflict will end in a few days or in a few years, explained in an interview for EL DEBATE José Alberto Moreno Chávez, a doctor in history and an internationalist, with a post-doctorate in global studies, an academic at the Universidad Iberoamericana Mexico City and founder of the DUMA consultancy.
international impact
This war between Russia and Ukraine has repercussions in the world and in Mexico.
According to Dr. Moreno Chávez, the first one occurred on Wednesday night with the crash of all stock markets around the world and the rise since last week of the barrel of oil to more than 100 dollars. And it is that, for approximately 100 years, the price of oil has not been so high, which affects everyone in daily life because gasoline is going to become more expensive, he explained.
Read more: The invasion begins! Russia seizes Snake Island from Ukraine
Another important consequence is that, since Ukraine is a grain-exporting country, although Mexico does not import these products from Ukraine, such as wheat, rice or other cereals, there are economies, especially European and other Asian countries, where When there is a war, the export of these grains is prevented and, therefore, the price of food can rise.
“How does that affect us? Suppose that part of our food comes from the European Union, then, when the price increases, as there are no grains or food, the export in Ukraine to Europe affects distribution and then the food in Mexico that comes from Europe could go up in price ” Moreno Chavez pointed out.
As for the consequences on energythe internationalist indicated that much of the gas that Europe consumes passes through Ukraine and Russia, and, as it is at the end of winter in Europe, the price of gas is going to increase and with it production costs will also increase.
American interest
Speaking of the United States, this country is at a critical moment with respect to Ukraine, Moreno Chávez mentioned, because it is in the midst of a paradox: either it responds tacitly to Vladimir Putin, which could escalate the war, along to his NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies, or else, in a status quo that Vladimir Putin occupies the two provinces of Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, which he already invaded this Wednesday and then he would be left in a “quite shameful” role. commented the specialist in history and global studies from the Institute of Latin American Studies of the Freie Universität in Berlin.
“It’s a pivotal moment, not just for Joe Bidenwhich has been carrying the error of leaving Afghanistan, but for all diplomacy and what the role of the United States in Europe means”, he explained.
Mexico and energy
While this is happening, in Mexico, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador declared that Mexico is prepared to face the impact of this military operation, because, if the price of imported gas rises, the electricity generation plants can start operating. They do not require gas.
In this sense, the academic commented that President López Obrador failed to mention that Mexico, on a regular basis, buys insurance for the price of gas and the price of oil if it goes down, but the problem is that when the price of oil goes up, Mexico could obtain higher profits from oil exports, but prices would also increase because this insurance is contracted when the price rises, then it can affect. If the price of gas rises too high, it affects the production and consumption of gas in the country.
“It is not a question of putting the turbines, it is a question of being able to supply the market and supply a local market like Mexico; there are preferences, before Europe or China would be preferred over Mexico, then it could get complicated there, but I see it especially in the case of gasoline”.
At the moment there is no telling how long this conflict will last between Russia and Ukraine, Dr. Moreno Chávez told ELDEBATE.
One scenario could be that Vladimir Putin and the Russian Army manage to pass through and occupy the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and remove the constitutionally elected government and put a puppet government in Ukraine, quick steps, but one that would have important consequences for the relationship with the United States. and Europe. “The warlike conflict would be solved by occupying Kiev, the political-diplomatic problem would spread.” Or in another scenario, that the Ukrainian Army, which receives advice from NATO and the United States Army, manages to either contain the Russian Army or repel the aggression and engage in a “swampy” war, which would be a much more tiring and lengthy conflict that could last for months or perhaps years, he explained.
Mexico condemned Nazi Germany
Finally, the specialist in global studies indicated, in response to President López Obrador’s statements of “non-intervention and self-determination of the peoples”, which is the typical position that the PRI had in the 20th century.
“Indeed, Mexico does not have much to say, nor much to contribute to the conflict, but there is something that the Foreign Ministry and the Presidency overlook, which is to condemn Russia, after all, Russia invades a foreign territory. On past occasions, when Nazi Germany invaded Austria, fascist Italy invaded Ethiopia, Mexico condemned both Germany and Italy for invading those countries, and it is a position that seems neutral to me, comfortable for the Mexican government, but that doesn’t add much to the discussion either,” he said. He recalled that Mexico, having the presidency of the UN Security Council, should have, at least, a much more active position in the diplomatic sphere, and has only been limited to declarations, because this is how this distinction of being a member entrusts it. of the Council, to seek a peaceful solution, but taking a much more active role, said the specialist and internationalist.
The story of an invasion
Among the causes of this conflict is Vladimir Putin’s interest in preserve the former territory of the Soviet Unionfor which the Russian leader undertook campaigns to orchestrate wars and coups within the former Soviet republics so that they continue to be satellites or “puppet” governments in favor of Russia, Moreno Chávez explained.
According to the doctor of history, it should be remembered that Ukraine, after its independence, until 1914 was a regime totally allied to Moscow. In 2014, there was a popular revolt known as the Orange Revolution, the population of Ukraine ignored the president at the time, Viktor Shevchenko, and fled in the direction of Moscow. From that moment on, the Ukrainian population established free elections, a time when it also coincided with the first invasion of Ukrainian territories, the city of Crimea, and established a democratic system of government with which they continue to this day, explained José Alberto. Moreno Chavez.
Died in the conflict
The Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenski, has assured that at least 137 civilians and members of the Army have died and hundreds more have been injured on the first day of the invasion, which occurred since early Thursday morning.
Read more: “This is not the third world war”, warn specialists on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
Biden vs. Putin
The UN estimates that there are more than 100,000 people displaced from their homes. US President Joe Biden has announced new sanctions. “Putin has much bigger ambitions than Ukraine. He wants to restore the old Soviet Union,” Biden said.
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