The Ibex 35 levels to watch to avoid ‘choking’ this Christmas

Not counting this half session (in which European stock markets trade until 2 p.m.), 2024 is already facing its final stages and there are barely three full days left to end the year. This last month of December is being intense for the markets that experienced falls last week that had not been seen for a long time due to the latest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve.

This Tuesday, is once again the general one among the futures of the main stock indices. Eyes remain on the behavior of the US stock market and large technology companies. And, despite the increases this Monday (the Nasdaq 100 pulled the wagon and was the most bullish index of the previous session), the futures of the technological index point to new falls this Tuesday.

Also in the Old Continent, the futures of the continent’s main selective stocks are trading slight declines. of the negative and its most relevant indices show increases of around 1%.

At a technical level, at the close of the previous week, the Ibex 35 reached the buy zone that Joan Cabrero, Ecotrader advisor, indicated for the index: 11,300 points. Now, maintaining that area is key so that we do not see new falls that could take the Spanish selective to the area of ​​10,300 points, that is, to give up 10% from current levels.

In this environment, for the moment, Cabrero recommends making Christmas purchases although he warns: “The stop for these purchases is located at the November minimum of the Ibex with dividends at 39,300 points, which is where the support that does not exist today is. should lose if we want to continue trusting in a bullish context in the short/medium term.”

“Think that if you lose the 11,150/11,300 of the Ibex 35 and especially the 39,300 of the Ibex with dividendsthe threat would be to see a 10% drop towards the August lows of 10,300 points. Until then, I would not be in favor of buying the Spanish stock market again,” analyzes the expert.

For its part, in the case of the European stock market, the level to keep an eye on is 4,688 points. Currently, the EuroStoxx 50 is far from this reference, specifically it would have to lose 3.5% more to reach that area.

However, the expert is optimistic about the continental index: “The EuroStoxx 50 has been developing a consolidation over the last nine months, very similar in terms of proportions to what we saw in 2023. The latter invites us to think that it is a question time for the EuroStoxx 50 to break this consolidation upwards, for which it should manage to overcome its highs of the year, which are located at 5,125 points”. Cabrero explains that the breakdown of these levels would favor “a bullish 2025 towards at least objectives of 5,500 pointswhich are the historical highs of the dotcom bubble of the year 2000.” That is, it points to increases for the European stock market of at least 10% for the following year.

Heads and tails for raw materials

Volatility has been marking the trajectory of oil prices in 2024. During the year, oil prices Brent (the price of the reference raw material in the Old Continent) have even surpassed the level of 91 dollars per barrel. Now, they are moving below $73.

This current price represents a 20% drop in crude oil from those highs it established in April. And, with three days left, oil records losses in 2024 of just over 5%. This would be, like this, its second consecutive bearish year. It had not had two years of losses since a decade ago, when its prices fell in 2014 and 2015.

Only gold can boast, among the main commodities, of its great performance in 2024. The golden metal lives its most bullish year since 2010with an increase that even touches 27%. Its performance even exceeds that of the world stock markets. During this year, there have been several occasions in which this raw material has broken its historical highs.

The T-Note does not give up at 4.5%

The US bond with a 10-year maturity (known as T-Note) continues unabated since the last rate decision by the US Federal Reserve.

That the Fed erased two rate cuts for 2025 at once has not done well for this asset that already profitability is close to 4.6% and its losses for the year are close to 3%.

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