This week, falls are the prevailing trend in Europe and Wall Street. Investors on both sides of the Atlantic had all their attention focused on the last meeting of the year of the United States Federal Reserve, which was assumed to result in a new rate cut in the region. And despite having met market expectations with the drop in the price of money by 25 basis points, the Fed’s prospects have worried the market given the alert of a rebound in inflation in 2025along with cutting its projections to just two rate cuts that year. The Ibex 35 falls 2.4% this week, up to 11,467.3 points, which are levels not seen in the index since mid-November. This Friday the session was marked by the quadruple witching hour.
In financial jargon, the quadruple witching hour is how it is known to the four sessions of the year in which options contracts on indices, stocks and exchange-traded funds expirewhich usually translates into high volatility in the stock markets. In the US it is called triple witching hoursince it is not allowed to have stock futures.
The Spanish stock market index is the second most bearish this week in Europe; The first title goes to the Italian FTSE Mib, which lost 3.2% in the weekly calculation. For its part, the German Dax fell 2.6%, leaving its rise for the year at 18.8%. On the other hand, the European benchmark index and the French stock market correct around 2%. The EuroStoxx 50 loses double digits in its 2024 rise, now it is 7.5%while the Cac 40 continues in negative territory in its annual price, extending its fall in the year to 3.6%. The country’s political uncertainty has also spread to the Paris stock market, and the outlook for next year shows a complicated outlook for investors.
The speech by Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed, has scared investors, since swithout mentioning the name of Donald Trump, it is known that his return to the White House is one of the main concerns for the institution. Both his promises of tariffs and the threat of starting a new trade war against China are some of the worrying factors in the Republican’s new mandate, which could lead inflation to get out of control again. And on this side of the Atlantic, promises of tariffs are a factor darkening the prospects for companies on the continent.
J. Safra Sarasin economist Raphael Olszyna-Marzys comments that there has been “a surprising shift in policymakers’ views on inflation risks,” and “uncertainty about the Trump Administration’s policy agenda and its possible impact on the economy, the Federal Reserve expects that, overall, put upward pressure on inflation. An idea that we share.” The economist explains that the entity’s forecast is that “inflation will move largely laterally next year and remain above 2% until 2027, a year later than previously expected. with important implications for the path of interest rates”.
Wall Street indices maintain their weekly price in negative territory, despite the rebound this session. So far, the Nasdaq 100 has lost 0.7%. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones fell 1.7% and 1.4% at midday.
The falls have left the US indices close to the buy zone, according to Ecotrader analyst and strategist Joan Cabrero, who are in the trump gapthat is, the levels at which these stock markets were trading just before the electoral victory of the new US president. For the strategist, the search for this bullish directive “will most likely stop further consolidation,” hence “in that trump gap There is the key support that I suggest waiting for it to be reached, before considering buying US equities again with a medium-term orientation with a view to 2025,” advises Cabrero.
These levels to re-expose yourself to the American stock market are in the 20,000 and 20,300 points of the Nasdaq 100 or between 5,700 and 5,850 points of the S&P 500 thatBy the way, “it would coincide with the average of the last 200 sessions in both indices,” says Cabrero. The technological selective is 6% from these levels, while the US reference remains one 3.5% of reaching these new purchase levels.
The falls of the Ibex
In a week of red numbersonly IAG, Amadeus, Naturgy and Logista are positive: the airline’s rise is the highest, 4.5%. The rest of the firms that make up the index have recorded falls. The firms that fall the most are Telefónica and Puig, since they give up 8% and 7.4%respectively. The telecommunications company notes this weekly drop after having discounted the dividend. Inside the top 5 of falls, Cellnex also stands out with a decrease of 6.4%, along with the decreases of Banco Santander of 6.6% and that of ArcelorMittal, which rises of 6.3%.
Regarding currencies, the dollar strengthened against the euro, reaching 1.035 green bills per European currency, although finally at the close of the European stock markets it was above these levels, at 1,039 dollars. For its part, a barrel of Brent ends the week in the area of 72.4 dollars. Meanwhile, gold fell 2.5% to $2,585 per ounce, although on Friday it stood at $2,627.
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