As hundreds of thousands of Israeli soldiers, regular and reservists, mass on Gaza’s borders, the Israeli government faces a difficult situation.
At least 150 hostages captured by armed Hamas militants in southern Israel last Saturday are now being held in secret locations inside Gaza.
Among them are women, children and the elderly.
If Israel decides to launch a full-scale ground invasion into Gaza, as some imminently expect, what are the chances that those hostages will survive?
No mood for commitment
Behind the scenes, Qatar, Egypt and possibly other countries are believed to be trying to negotiate a partial release of those hostages.
One idea being discussed is for Hamas to release women and children prisoners in exchange for 36 Palestinian women and teenagers who are being held in Israeli jails.
But Michael Milstein, a senior analyst at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University in Israel, told me that While in normal times the number one priority for Israel would be the return of those hostages, currently it is the elimination of Hamas as a military threat..
With tensions and anger at sky-high levels on both sides, neither Israel nor Hamas are in the mood for compromise or concessions.
Israelis are shocked and outraged that gunmen could so easily breach their southern border and then murder at least 1,200 people, most of them in cold blood.
Palestinians, and not just Hamas, are suffering the onslaught of more than 2,000 Israeli airstrikes against Gaza that have killed more than 1,000 people since Saturday.
Gaza has run out of fuel, electricity, water and medicine.
Hamas has threatened to “execute” a hostage for every Israeli airstrike that kills civilians without warning. There is no evidence that they have done so yet.
At the same time, there are few signs of moderation on Israel’s part. Large areas of Gaza are being intentionally reduced to rubble.
However, Milstein believes that Hamas may not want to hold women, children and the elderly.
They give him a bad image internationally and many of those hostages will require a high degree of care, which is not easy amid constant airstrikes and when Hamas is trying to keep their location a secret.
On the other hand, Hamas will want to make the most of any serving military personnel in its possession, obtaining the highest price for their release if negotiations take place.
There is no easy option
This leaves the Israeli government with a dilemma when it comes to the hostages.
Attempt an armed rescue mission, which is fraught with risk? Or wait longer, until Hamas is so weakened by the airstrikes that it is more willing to reach an agreement?
That option carries its own risks. Although the hostages are believed to be held underground in tunnels and bunkers, they may not be immune to these airstrikes.
There is always the risk that their captors could kill them, either in a fit of rage or if they fear they are about to be rescued.
This happened in Nigeria in 2012 during a failed mission by the Nigerian and British Special Forces to rescue two hostages held by jihadists.
Israel rushed to create a Hostage Crisis Room, compiling everything it knows about the identity and condition of each of the hostages who were dragged at gunpoint across the border into Gaza on Saturday.
Those still held in Israeli territory were rescued by the Israeli military and police Special Forces, who killed all of the Hamas captors.
But Michael Milstein, who spent 20 years in Israeli military intelligence, warns that “we don’t have all the data on every house and street in Gaza.”
This is where Hamas lies on its territory, able to hide itself and its hostages in a network of basements and underground tunnels.
Israel has proven experience in rescuing hostages, for which it has trained intensively.
Created in 1957, its secret Sayeret Matkal unit is very similar to the British SAS (Special Air Service) or the American Delta Force.
He rose to fame in 1976 with his raid on Entebbe, when his commandos rescued hostages from a hijacked plane at a Ugandan airport.
The commander of that unit was Yonatan Netanyahu, the only fatality among the Israeli commandos.
Today his brother Benjamin is the Prime Minister of Israel and it is he who must make the decision to wait in the hope of a negotiated release of the hostages or to intervene harshly hoping to rescue them by force.
“It’s the most complicated hostage situation so far.”
Reports have emerged that the United States is providing intelligence assistance and possibly support from its own Special Forces.
A large group of US Navy aircraft carriers is positioning itself off the coast of the eastern Mediterranean.
But Hamas has proven capable of conducting asymmetric warfare and of being able to offset Israel’s enormous advantage in technology and firepower.
By avoiding leaving a digital trail in their communications and keeping them to a minimum, they were able to take Israel by surprise on October 7.
The militants currently holding those more than 150 hostages will remain offline and away from the airwaves to the extent possible and will almost certainly have removed all digital devices from their captives.
“Without a doubt,” says Michael Milstein, “this is the most difficult hostage situation Israel has ever faced in its history.”
Remember that you can receive notifications from BBC News Mundo. Download the latest version of our app and activate them so you don’t miss our best content.
Do you already know our YouTube channel? Subscribe!
BBC-NEWS-SRC: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/cz9r0k1w6lno, IMPORTING DATE: 2023-10-12 16:00:10
#hostages #kidnapped #Hamas #dilemma #Israel #faced