In the absence of a scarce month for the Fiscal Authority (Airef) to issue its opinion on the latest pension reforms, the Government has indicated what are the criteria that govern the calculations that that organism must do including a key game for … hold the system: millionaire transfers that the State makes to social security periodically to maintain viability. With this economic clarification, accounts can quadrate better and, above all, You avoid having to undertake some cuts.
The state transfers is one of the clarifications directed by Elma Saiz has included in the regulations that set the rules by which Airef must evaluate the system. Because If the accounts do not leave, the report must indicate if more income is neededor less expenses. In addition, this exam will have the latest pension data, which yesterday published Social Security, and that reflect a panorama in which the monthly spending brushes the record of 13.5 billion euros, 6% more than a year ago. To give some examples of the growth of the figures, which advances by leaps and bounds, the average retirement pension has first exceeded 1,500 euros in history; and the new additions to the system correspond to a average benefit close to 1,900 euros.
This increase is explained by the incorporation of the generation of the ‘baby boom’ (those born between the end of the 50 and the 70s); the revaluation that pensions (on this last occasion, 2.8%); the increase in the minimum wage (SMI) in more than 50% in five years, which conditions the price of a part of the workers; or the complements applied by the State in gender or minimum matters.
Nor does it help to square the accounts other data that, updated, should remove pressure from spending: the fact that early retirements represent less than 30% of those registered; In 2019 they were 40%. Or that the average age of retirement is at 65.2 years.
Moncloa hopes that the criteria adapted for the tax authority to develop its accounts imply that pension spending It does not exceed 15% of GDP until 2050as Spain has committed to the European Commission. With the 50,000 million that the central administration injected into the system at key moments, such as extra summer or Christmas payments, revenues are much more stabilized. Although social security insists that the norm has not been changed, nor can it be done from the legal point of view, these criteria do add a clarification to the five major sources of financing, with the contributions to the front: «Likewise, the Consideration of entry of the Social Security System State transfer to the Social Security Budget which must annually contemplate the General Budget Law, ”is the additional additional paragraph.
Autonomy to decide your calculations
The problem with which the executive can be found is that the airf rejects this game when performing its calculations because it considers that It is not part of that medium and long term evaluationas stated by various expert sources in this type of process linked to pensions.
In addition, the Executive rules force airf to use The latest macroeconomic data more updated to perform your evaluation. For example, with the Gross Domestic Product Registry (GDP), much higher at this point of the year than when the European Commission developed its system stability report. If GDP is higher, thanks to the growth of the Spanish economy of these months, the expenditure on pensions measured on that ratio will be lower and, therefore, will not require more adjustments.
Actually, there is a decalage between the data used Brussels to make its estimates and the latest INE records, which have confirmed GDP growth above 3%. It is an opportunity to review all calculations and make projections at 2050. “It makes no sense to use different data when you have them updated,” government sources insist.
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