More than three years ago, in May 2021, Pedro Sánchez presented ‘Spain 2050’, a project to decide “What country do we want to be in 30 years” promoted by his former cabinet director Iván Redondo. Since then, the National Foresight and Strategy Office It annually updates a series of indicators that it considers ‘key’, with objectives that Spain should achieve between now and 2050 “if it wants to converge with the most advanced countries in Europe.”
This “compass of the country”, as Moncloa calls it, is reflected in a interactive table composed of 58 socioeconomic indicators in the economy, education, employment, environment, inequality and poverty, and welfare state for which there is data. These figures demonstrate the work of the Executive in the last five years. Moncloa points out in which of them there has been a great advance or progress since Sánchez came to power, but also in which there has been none or even a setback.
The latter represent more than a third: In 20 of the 58 indicators the evolution has been null or negative in the last five full years availablesome of them updated to 2023. In economic matters, 12 key indicators stand out and only seven advances are reflected (in employment rate; in R&D spending; in number of large, small and medium-sized companies; in gender wage gap; and in tax collection).
On the contrary, he admits that there is no progress compared to five years ago in the objective of narrowing the per capita income gap with the EU, of increasing labor productivity levels, to stop the underground economyto reduce the hours worked and to increase the percentage of people satisfied with their lives. In other words: Pedro Sánchez’s Executive has not made any progress in these matters. “No changes,” he says.
The gap in per capita income with the EU, For example, it stood at 21.3% in 2023, levels similar to those of 2019. The objective is to lower it to 18% in 2030, 15% in 2040 and 10% in 2050. The same occurs with productivitywhich stands at 42.9 euros at the end of 2023, the same level as four years before. The objective is to raise it to 46 euros in 2030, to 53 euros in 2040, and to 63 euros in 2060. The percentage of people satisfied with their lives has been stagnant at 87% for five years, when the objective is to take it to 93%.
In education The Executive even recognizes a decline in the last five years (with data until 2022) in three indicators, among which are the percentage of 15-year-old students with low performance in PISA in both mathematics and reading. In science, there has been no progress. The percentage of 15-year-old students with high performance in PISA in mathematics has also fallen by 19% compared to 2018, while there are no changes in female students enrolled in tertiary education in the STEM field.
In the strict scope of employmentAccording to the latest data available, the Government has not been able to make any progress in the active employment policies dedicated to training in terms of GDP. Nor in the percentage of both medium and small companies that provide training for their workers. In the case of large companies, a decline is even identified.
Of the ten objectives set on environment, It has only made progress in six (GHG emissions, primary energy intensity, electrical energy generated by renewable sources, ecological agricultural production, reforestation rate and population exposed to levels of air pollution above WHO recommendations). However, Spain has not made progress on the objectives regarding demand for water, rehabilitation of homes and municipal waste sent to landfill; and has taken steps back in the environmental collection, according to data released by Moncloa.
In inequality and povertyno changes are identified in the last five years in the percentage of population that suffers financial overload associated with paying for housingwhen the objective set was to reduce it. The energy poverty has worsened in the last five years for which data is available, with 17.1% of the population unable to keep their home at an adequate temperature in 2022, compared to 9.1% in 2018. Finally, in the state of well-being, only progress is identified.
“What we present here is, in any case, only a first proposal that must be constantly reviewed and updated, as the country changes, scientific knowledge advances, and more appropriate indicators appear. We must also keep in mind that these 50 quantitative objectives are only an indicative tool,” stated the initial document. However, even though the economic situation has turned out to be more favorablethe objectives remain unchanged and many of them, without progress.
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