The French National Assembly voted this Wednesday in favor of the motion of censure against the Prime Minister, Michel Barnier. Despite calls for “responsibility” from the one who is so far the shortest head of Government of the Fifth Republic, the text registered by the left has triumphed and has finally been supported by the extreme right of Marine Le Pen. His party, National Group, had presented its own text that its debate will no longer be necessary once the first party triumphs.
These motions of censure come after having reached “the limit of dialogue” with the opposition. Barnier announced this Monday before the National Assembly the activation of article 49.3 of the Constitution, a provision that allows a bill to be approved without a vote, in this case the one relating to the financing of Social Security, a text that establishes the forecasts and the budget of French social services such as pensions, family benefits, unemployment benefits, etc.
“From now on, ladies and gentlemen, everyone must face their responsibilities, I will face mine,” Barnier added. Without a sufficient majority in the Assembly, the French Prime Minister was unable to convince the opposition political forces to vote in favor of the text or to abstain. The use of 49.3 opened the possibility for one or more opposition forces to present a motion of censure which, if successful, would mean the rejection of the law and the fall of the government.
The still prime minister, 73 years old, acknowledged in a televised interview on Tuesday that the situation in which he was appointed by Emmanuel Macron as head of Government was “unheard of” in the last 60 years due to the political fragmentation of a National Assembly. difficult to manage due to its division into three blocks (left, Macronist center and Lepenist extreme right).
“If the motion of censure succeeds,” he added, “everything will be more difficult and more serious.” Barnier took advantage of the moments of prime time to remind that, for constitutional reasons, there cannot be legislative elections until mid-2025, which, in his opinion, will aggravate the situation of political instability.
In the event that he is dismissed by the Assembly, Barnier will be the most short-lived prime minister of the Fifth Republic since 1958. However, he asserted that his door remains “open” to “listen to” the deputies’ proposals for a “Budget (of the State) that is not perfect.”
Who activates the motion of censure mechanism?
A motion of censure is admissible in France if it is signed by at least one tenth of the members of the National Assembly (i.e. 58 deputies). It must be presented within 24 hours after the approval of a text through 49.3 and the vote can only take place after 48 hours after its presentation.
The Assembly received two motions of censure in the hours after Barnier’s announcement: the firstpresented by the four groups of the New Popular Front, received 185 signatures. On the opposite side of the chamber, another motionpresented by the National Rally (Marine Le Pen’s party) and its allies from the Union of Right for the Republic (Éric Ciotti’s), was signed by the 140 members of the two far-right parties.
What does the motion of censure need to be approved?
For the motion to be adopted, an absolute majority of votes in the Assembly must be achieved. The vote is scheduled for Wednesday – the exam will begin at 4:00 p.m. – and only votes in favor are counted.
Under normal conditions, this majority stands at 289 deputies (out of 577), but since the last elections two seats have remained vacant and the partial elections to allocate them have not yet been held, so the threshold will be 288. It has finally received 331 votes in favor, so the necessary majority has been greatly exceeded.
What is the balance of forces facing the vote?
As established by the Assembly regulations, the motion with the most signatures – that of the New Popular Front – will be discussed and voted on first. It is the one with the best chance of succeeding, since deputies from left-wing parties refuse to vote on any motion presented by Marine Le Pen’s party, while the far-right leader has announced that her party will vote in favor of all of them. motions “regardless of their origin.”
It so happens that the extreme right has announced a vote in favor of the left’s initiative, despite the fact that it is expressly contrary to the approach of Barnier’s Government to Le Pen’s party. “While a large majority of our citizens have chosen the option of stopping the extreme right in the legislative elections, the prime minister has given in to his most vile obsessions,” says the text presented by the NFP in reference to the concessions. what the Government has done in immigration policy to try to ingratiate itself with the National Group.
The sum of the votes of the left-wing deputies (192) and those of the extreme right (140) should be enough to reach the figure of 288 deputies. Although voting discipline in the French Parliament is not as strict as in the Spanish Parliament, in this case the majority of deputies are expected to follow the instructions given by the leaders of their formations.
What happens after the success of the vote?
Unlike what happens in Spain, in France motions of censure do not imply the proposal of an alternative candidate. Article 50 of the French Constitution simply establishes that, in the event of censure, the Prime Minister will present the resignation of the Government to the President of the Republic.
In the only precedent of a censure approved by the Assembly – dating back to 1962 – General De Gaulle decided to keep the Executive in office, while announcing the dissolution of the Assembly and calling legislative elections. In the current situation, Emmanuel Macron cannot do the same, since a year must pass since the last dissolution (which in this case dates back to June).
The president must thus appoint a new prime minister; The Constitution does not impose deadlines or conditions for this task. Macron will also have to decide whether to ask Barnier and his Government to remain in office for the duration of the consultation period. Once a new head of Government is appointed, he will propose to the president the ministers who will make up the new Executive.
The hypothesis of a supposedly technical Government – similar the one who ruled Italy between 2011 and 2013 with Mario Monti, or later with Mario Draghi in 2021 – appears these days in several French media.
However, this option would require the support of one of the forces that this week will vote on the motion of censure against Barnier.
What happens after the budgets are rejected and the Government falls?
In addition to the Social Security one, two other budget texts need to be approved before December 31: the draft End of Management Finance Law (which contains essential provisions to adjust budget management) and, much more important, the draft Finance law that establishes the State budgets for the year 2025.
Both the prime minister and important members of the center-right and right-wing coalition have been warning in recent weeks about the consequences of ending the year without having voted on new budgets.
A few days ago Michel Barnier evoked a “storm” in the financial markets and a scenario similar to the shutdown of the United States federal government, in which civil servants stop receiving their salaries.
Along the same lines, former Macronist Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne – who in 19 months at the head of Government had to face 23 motions of censure – warned that without a Social Security budget, pensions would stop being paid.
In reality, most experts consider these statements exaggerated and point out that there are different mechanisms to maintain the functioning of the State, either through Parliament to agree on an extension of the current budgets or ensuring the functioning of the Social Security organizations. through decrees.
However, an important part of the services is financed through loans and different economists They point out that the current instability will have an impact on interest rates, adding pressure to French public finances, which have already suffered a significant deterioration this year with the increase in debt and the public deficit.
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