The four key themes of the World Economic Forum

Any unsuspecting observer could believe that the atmosphere surrounding the new edition of the World Economic Forum – which formally began at nightfall last night in Davos – should be festive. Ultimately, the widespread recession that so many experts predicted a year ago did not occur and employment levels in the richest nations remained high.

As a result, stock markets such as those in Tokyo and New York have rebounded in recent weeks. Specialists emphasize that things went well, despite the fact that in recent months international interest rates rose sharply in the face of a resurgence of inflation that now appears to be under control.

For this reason, it is surprising that frowns and pessimism are the predominant note in what is described as the elite of capitalism. This is clear from a couple of reports that served as an introduction to the event that brings together some 2,800 delegates in what is usually a peaceful town, famous for its ski slopes, in this corner of the Swiss Alps.

Doubts and more doubts

The first is the Global Risks Report, in which the predominant view of the near future is negative. The reasons are several, but among the main ones is an unstable world order “characterized by polarizing narratives and insecurity”, along with fears due to the increase in temperatures on the planet and economic uncertainty.

A concern that appears noticeably in the panorama is related to misinformation, fueled by the development of technology and communications. The possibility of more armed conflicts also looms, adding to the known geopolitical tensions.

Such elements also weighed on the minds of the economists who lead the analysis departments in a good number of multinationals and leading universities. Although there is some optimism, it is cautious, since the perception is that there are sources of instability that begin with regional divergences that are widening.

Specifically, 56 percent of the technicians surveyed think that the economy will tend to weaken in the coming months, both in terms of labor markets and financial conditions. An even larger proportion – 69 percent – ​​believes that the pace of geoeconomic fragmentation will accelerate and show growing disparities between countries.

It may sound like a minority view, but the fact that 36 percent of those surveyed think that there will be ruptures in global value chains sounds like a warning bell. The perception of a planet divided into blocks is growing, giving rise to restrictions on trade.

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Remedies on the table

Such an impression, Without a doubt, it ended up being decisive in defining the central axes of an event that will last until next Friday and in which more than 300 high dignitaries will participate., between heads of State and Government, ministers and directors of the main multilateral organizations. In addition, recognized experts, both from the most recognized universities and the private sector, will participate in dozens of panels that will revolve around four central themes.

The first is to achieve security and ensure cooperation in a fractured world. There is no doubt that the situation in the Middle East makes this objective more urgent, given Iran's attitude and the presence of militias with great offensive power either in Lebanon or Yemen.

But the deadlock in Ukraine is also on the list of headaches pending resolution. In fact, on Sunday it took place in Davos a meeting in which more than 80 countries participated and talked about alternatives to leave behind the most serious confrontation that has occurred in Europe since the end of the Second World War.

A second axis in the deliberations is to create growth and jobs for a new era. It is unknown to anyone that the technological revolution is accompanied by many opportunities by making processes cheaper and improving efficiencies, but also with potential costs in the labor field.

In this way, tools such as automation, the use of robots and algorithms – among other advances – threaten dozens of professions and trades. Although the reports of one's own Economic Forum point out that more jobs will end up being created than will disappear, the transition may be more or less painful, depending on its speed or the capacity of different societies to retrain their respective workforces.

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As a third aspect, a point related to the fourth industrial revolution appears, but which already deserves a separate space. It's about artificial intelligence, which due to its incremental capacity to incorporate more information and predictive elements is seen as both progress and threat. Hence, the dilemma is to convert it into a force for good, something that involves both debates and eventual regulations by States.

Things related to climate change, nature and energy could not be missing from the program either. Despite progress at the multilateral level or increasing investments in the generation of electricity from sustainable sources, everything suggests that not enough has been done to contain the rise in temperatures, with the impacts that this causes.

Thus, the motto of this year's event in Davos speaks for itself: rebuild trust. That is a necessary condition for humanity to be able to work in a coordinated manner to solve its great challenges, something that today has a lot of utopia.

Perhaps that is why those who see the glass half empty and not half full are right. Beyond the fact that the alpine atmosphere is the same as every year, the tone of concern is more evident than on other occasions. It remains to be seen if in these next four days that perception changes or is reaffirmed.

Inaugurate Casa Colombia, among the President's agenda

Those who know about the matter assure that it is the place on earth where real estate is the most expensive, at least for a few days a year. It is a section of the Promenade avenue in Davos (Switzerland), the place where some of the best-known brands of capitalism seek to have a presence to attract the attention of a floating population, characterized either by their influence or their economic power.

There are also nations that wave or have waved their flag, usually from Asia, Africa or Eastern Europe. In the past, to cite a close example, Mexico occupied a privileged space on the same street.

Now the turn has come to Colombia, which at number 49 Promenade appears with a colorful facade that highlights the “country of beauty.” There is no doubt that this presence gives warmth to the passers-by who walk the snowy platforms.
There will always be debate about whether the costs of renting the space and fitting it out are worth it. There is no shortage of people who say that there was already some visibility, since in the coffee stands located in the Congress Center the Colombian bean is the one chosen.

In response, the argument is that this is something that Procolombia does frequently. At the recent climate summit in Dubai our natural riches were also promoted.

There are other considerations. The space, although small, is cozy and serves to receive groups of people. That is what the Minister of Finance, Ricardo Bonilla, has planned, who scheduled a meeting this morning, as well as the Minister of Commerce, Germán Umaña, who will lead a breakfast with investors tomorrow.
Although the facilities were operating yesterday, their formal opening will take place this morning once Gustavo Petro arrive in Davos. In this way, the official agenda will begin as soon as the delegation reaches the Alpine town after landing in Zurich. In addition to the presentation of Casa Colombia, the President is invited to a panel on the Amazon, with the participation – among others – of the head of the Inter-American Development Bank, Ilan Goldfajn, and the Minister of the Environment of Brazil, Marina Silva.

This public meeting will be followed by bilateral meetings and commitments behind closed doors. The events open to the public will continue tomorrow morning, in a discussion on the current situation in Latin America.

However, the main course will be served a few hours later in the large hall of the Congress Center. The reason is a conversation about “the schism between the north and th
e south” in which they will be Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft; as well as Paul Kagame, the president of Rwanda; the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, and the director general of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

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In the absence of other Latin American leaders who thought about being present at Davos, such as the president of Peru, Dina Boluarte, and that of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, the stage is almost completely clear for Colombia. The presence of at least five ministers – Treasury, Mines, Commerce, Environment and Foreign Ministry – exceeds what was seen in previous times.

It remains to be seen, however, if the arrival of a guest that no one has seen yet steals the spotlight. Javier Milei He will make a speech tomorrow, in what will be his only public act. Several of his economic ministers will have a conversation with the press and, according to someone informed, they will advance an intense agenda in private.

Among Spanish speakers there has been speculation whether both leaders – whose differences are known – could meet in one of the corridors. Although it is possible, Everything indicates that Gustavo Petro for now is only interested in speaking with an Argentine: Pope Francis, who will receive him in Rome once the World Economic Forum ends.

RICARDO ÁVILA. TIME.