72 years old, of which 24 in the Kremlin, and a destiny that will most likely see him in power for life. Vladimir Putin, as expected, wins the elections in Russia by a landslide and is preparing to remain at the head of the country at least until 2030 when he will have surpassed even Stalin in terms of longevity at the top. Another safe six years of mandate for the new tsar who, re-elected for the fifth time, will be able to extend his government for another six years, if only he wants. And there is no reason to think that in the distant future he will resign.
But who could take up Putin's baton? The question was asked by the Washington Post with polls still open but with the awareness of a plebiscite taken for granted. Meanwhile, one thing was already certain for observers: the former KGB spy will govern as long as she is alive. But this longevity could prove to be both an asset and a weakness. One of the 'secrets' of Putin's longevity in power is undoubtedly his unrivaled leadership style. Alexei Navalny, the strongest and most charismatic opposition figure in recent years, died in an Arctic penal colony last month. Other potential rivals have been killed, such as Boris Nemtsov, who was shot dead in Moscow in 2015. The same fate over the years has also been reserved for those believed to be his allies. Like the head of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash two months after his uprising. Even her nominal rivals in this weekend's elections, Ekaterina Duntsova and Boris Nadezhdin, were excluded from the ballot for technical reasons.
Since Putinism admits of no rivals, so far there has been little room for possible heirs. One of his closest allies is Dmitry Medvedev, now vice president of the Russian Security Council. Medvedev was president of Russia between 2008 and 2012, while Putin was prime minister, in a 'tandem' leadership designed to circumvent term limits. And which were permanently changed in 2021. Once considered a sort of 'reformist' version of Putin, Medvedev is now known for aggressive nationalism and derisive statements about Ukraine and the West. The crazy content of some of his messages often shocks, although some analysts argue that Medvedev plays a pre-planned role of “court clown” to make Putin appear more moderate.
Between possible candidates for his succession there is the current prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin, or military leaders such as the defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, although both lack popular support. Unlike the mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, who however could pay for leading the city where the United Russia party is less strong.
Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Security Council, is considered very powerful, but he remained behind the scenes until the invasion of Ukraine, when his hawkish rhetoric made him a leading voice. The governor of the Tula region, Alexei Dyumin, is not well known in the West, but his past as Putin's former personal bodyguard, promoted to senior military levels, has led to speculation that he could be one of the favorites to succeed.
Stay It is also difficult to imagine a scenario in which power remains in the family. Officially, the Russian president has two daughters, both academics. But so far there has been no sign that suggests future leadership for either of the two. With no real rivals and no clear designated heir, much of the speculation about Russia's future now focuses on Putin's health.. Last year, a rumor that the president had suffered a heart attack spread on a popular Telegram account, despite a clear lack of evidence. Even if these are just rumors, they reflect a fundamental fact – according to the Washington Post -. Unless something significant changes in Russia, Putin will die while in office.
Many predict that when he leaves power, there will be a bitter and chaotic struggle. “The days, months and years after Putin's departure could be even more turbulent than anyone expects“said Robert Person, a Russia expert at the US Military Academy, who said, however, that a power struggle does not mean the system will ultimately change.
Putin, a 24 year long era
Putin he arrived in the Kremlin more than 24 years ago, on December 31, 1999. Surprisingly, it was Boris Yeltsin who called the then Prime Minister to assume the role of Acting President and who had at the same time tendered his resignation. That same day, Putin was given the suitcase with the nuclear codes, a copy of the Russian Constitution – which he would amend several times to consolidate and extend his power – and the President's emblem.
There first test of the polls for the former KGB agent in Dresden it arrived a few months later, on March 26, 2000. He won the elections with 53 percent of the votes. But his popularity will grow over the years, thanks to the increase in oil and gas prices which allow him to finance the regular payment of pensions and salaries of public employees and projects. And in the wake of the climate of terror triggered by the explosions in the country's apartment buildings in 1999 and the second war in Chechnya. In 2004 he was re-elected with 71.3 percent of the votes.
In 2008, having completed the two consecutive mandates as President foreseen by the 1993 Constitution, the former director of the FSB announced the first change of office with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Who a few months after arriving in the Kremlin repaid the favor by introducing a reform that extended the President's mandate from four to six years. A step that anticipates the second change of office between Madvedev and Putin who, in 2012, he returned for his third term in the Kremlin, in a new and darker climate. He wins these elections with 63.6 percent of the votes.
The street protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg between 2011 and 2012 against fraud in the legislative elections and a few months later in the presidential ones, the ballet between Putin and Medvedev, the thefts of United Russia, defined in those months as the party of thieves and scammers by Aleksei Navalny, trigger systematic political repression, even if diluted, with the introduction of new laws, starting with the one on NGOs considered foreign agents.
In 2018 Putin faces the polls for the fourth time. He is re-elected with 76.7 percent of the votes in elections that the OSCE judges to be “lacking real competition” and in which it finds “pressure on voters” but which for the Kremlin represent a celebration of the solid majority that has been created in the country after the annexation of Crimea, the fourth anniversary of which, not surprisingly, coincides with the opening day of the polls.
At the beginning of 2020, Putin presented more than 200 amendments to the Constitution, then ratified in a referendum, including the one that allows the living former Presidents, therefore him and Medvedev, to see their mandates canceled and therefore, allowing this to re-present year. But also in 2030. “Hastily approved” amendments that “violate Russian law in several ways”, as he wrote in the Washington Post, from the special regime penal colony where he is serving a 25-year prison sentence for treason, the opponent Vladimir Kara-Murza. In recent days the last chapter in chronological order of the Putin era, with the fifth re-election with over 87% of the votes.
The record-breaking election: Putin voted by “almost 76 million people”
The data from the latest electoral round are impressive. To vote for Putinexplained the director of the Russian Election Commission Ella Pamfilova in a press conference, “almost 76 million people“, a “record result”, just as thevoter turnout of 77.44 percent, more than 74.66 percent in the 1991 elections. Putin was voted for, according to the official results relating to the counting of 99.75 percent of the votes, by 87.29 percent of the votes. 87.1 million people went to the polls. Pamfilova denounced the attempts of “enemies” to hinder participation in the polls, including “acts of intimidation, to generate panic among voters”.
Putin also garnered 98.99 percent of the vote in Chechnya, where voter turnout reached 97 percent, the Election Commission said. Already in 2018, 91.44 percent of those entitled to vote in Chechnya had voted. And in 2012 Putin had received 99.76 percent of the votes in the region governed in an authoritarian manner by Ramzan Kadyrov.
The Russian vote in Italy? In our country, 4,535 Russians voted for the presidential elections, the Russian embassy in Rome reports in a post on Facebook, according to which in the capital – where several dozen people were lined up yesterday at noon for the protest against Putin – 1,560 people voted, in Milan 2,247, in Genoa 532 and in Palermo 196.
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