The one-year Euribor, the indicator most used in Spain to calculate variable mortgages, is close to closing November again lower, below 2.53%, which would chain its eighth consecutive month of declines.
Although still five sessions left To end the month, the provisional average rate for November is at 2,527%, its lowest level since September 2022.
The Investment Director of Diaphanum, Miguel Ángel García, predicts that the Euribor will continue to fallor to the extent that European inflation also does so, something he sees as “very likely.”
Likewise, García has said that he does not rule out that in the next meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB), and not only in December, but also in the following one, interest rate cuts of around 25 basis points occuruntil reaching a neutral level, which would be about 2-2.5%.
In this sense, it has been considered that the Euribor is already discounting these cuts by trading around the 2.5% average rateor even below, in intraday rate.
For their part, Ebury analysts indicate that the Euribor maintains its downward trend, but more slowly, given the market’s skepticism at a fifty basis point cut at the next ECB meeting.
“As we approach December 12, the scheduled date for the next ECB cut, the Euribor has resumed its slow downward march. However, this decline has slowed as markets become more skeptical given the possibility of a cut of fifty basis points,” they argue.
In this sense, they add that the latest statements from those responsible for the ECB have been “more of an aggressive line”and the recently published data on the growth of wages in the euro zone during the third quarter “will not greatly reassure the central bank, which does not believe that inflation is under control anymore.”
The Euribor started the year at 3.609%while in February it rose to 3.671% and in March to 3.718%.
Nevertheless, a downward trend began in Aprilsince that same month it closed at 3.703%; in May, at 3,680%, and in June, at 3,650%. In July it fell to 3.526%; in August, at 3.166%; in September, at 2.936%, and in October, at 2.691%.
The continued decline in the Euribor is contributing to a lowering of fees of variable mortgages. As an example, in the case of a variable mortgage of 150,000 euros, with a term of 25 years, plus an interest of 1% on the provisional Euribor for November, the savings will be about 1,500 euros per year.
In the case of a mortgage of 300,000 euros With the same conditions, the savings after the fall of the Euribor this month will exceed the 3,000 euros per year.
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