The EU sees Russia “decimated” after the coup in Kharkov while the US contains the euphoria

Volodymyr Zelensky visited the troops stationed in the recently reconquered town of Izium on Wednesday. / Eph

Biden believes that kyiv has “a long” road ahead while the Pentagon awaits Moscow’s next steps and the drift of Putin’s political crisis

“Russian industry is in tatters.” A “decimated” country. “With courage and solidarity, Putin will fail and Europe will prevail.” “The European Union has regained its inner strength.” “Wars are won with weapons.” Adrenaline is a hormone that speeds up the heart rate. And the victory of the Ukrainian troops in Kharkov this past weekend has become a real hormonal overdose in the heart of the EU. An injection of euphoria capable of unleashing epic statements, especially from the president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the head of diplomacy, Josep Borrell, about a hypothetical change of course in the invasion that, however, contrasts with prudence from the United States.

“This is the time for us to show determination, not appeasement,” Von der Leyen emphasized this Wednesday in the debate on the state of the Union in the Strasbourg Chamber, where he blamed the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, for promoting the “spiral of destruction and death” shaking Ukraine. The leader was addressing above all those who in the community space are beginning to doubt about the prolongation of the war and the consolidation of a scenario where there is more talk of arms exports than of diplomatic channels.

Von der Leyen assured that Moscow will not hesitate to exploit the differences of opinion among Europeans. Nor fears her. Above all, the energy bill -an economic crisis that weighed on the fracture of the Italian Government- and the warning of a winter more similar to an ice age that the extreme right is already planning to use by calling, for example, massive citizen marches against the German Executive. “It is a struggle between autocracy and democracy” and a challenge before which “Europeans did not hide or hesitate”, the EU leader reminded the doubters. The session was attended by the wife of Ukrainian President Volodímir Zelensky. Olena Zelenska thanked the community support before the commissioners, all of them dressed in the blue and yellow colors of the Ukrainian flag. Olena preferred a white suit. Her husband, meanwhile, met in the town of Izuim with the soldiers who were protagonists of the Russian withdrawal in Kharkov

US strategists maintain a more dovish tone. They leave to Zelensky the responsibility of assessing whether or not the conflict has reached a turning point, and await the next steps of the Moscow Army to find out if it is really “regrouping”. The Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, has limited himself to confirming the existence of a “sensation of momentum on the part of the Ukrainian armed forces”. The president, Joe Biden, has been even more succinct. Ukraine still has “a long way to go,” he says.

While his army fled in disarray on Saturday, Vladimir Putin inaugurated the program of celebrations in the middle of a park to commemorate the refoundation of Moscow. There was a Ferris wheel. Putin described it as “the largest in Europe” and presented it as the central attraction. The Ferris wheel broke down a few hours later and tickets had to be returned to the public.

His cabinet is now trying to do something similar to weather the political crisis and save the president, who has never been the recipient of criticism from a growing number of parliamentarians, senators, councilors, editorialists, ex-military members and propagandists related to his regime for the nefarious course of the war. The Kremlin wants to show that it is not the war strategy itself that is failing, but that the wheel that moves it has broken down; that is, the military chain of command, where he is already looking for culprits to dismiss them, according to the American War Institute.

This type of maneuver has served the Kremlin well on two previous occasions. At the beginning of the invasion, when the occupation showed signs of not being as easy as expected, the Russian government arrested several Moscow intelligence chiefs from their homes for not having correctly evaluated the enemy’s forces. In April, the Defense Ministry carried out a reshuffle of the military leadership weeks after withdrawing from kyiv. The difference with the current moment is that Putin and his ministers were then enjoying the public prosperity.

historical questioning

Today is different. The Russians woke up this Wednesday more restless before the voices that demand the Kremlin decree the general mobilization of the population to reinforce the battlefield with thousands of soldiers. They not only come from opinion leaders and ultranationalist political figures, but also from positions of the two parties that hold the leadership of Putin (United Russia and the Communist Party). On the contrary, there are already more than a hundred mayors from 35 municipalities who are calling for the resignation of the Chief Executive for the damage caused by the war to the country; the demonstration that society becomes increasingly ambivalent between those who defend hardening the fight and those who advocate putting an end to it. “Opinions are polarizing. Over time, polarized opinions become radicalized. All this points to a growing conflict within Russian society, ”said an expert in social analysis in ‘The Washington Post’ yesterday.

Another maneuver launched by the Kremlin to exonerate its boss blames the defeat in Kharkov on Western governments for sending weapons, carrying out intelligence work and training the local military. “The West urged Ukraine to do something. They need visible results from their military aid and training,” says the influential military-political journalist Boris Rzhin. “If you fight in volunteer army mode and the enemy is carrying out a total mobilization (of its population), it is clear that it has superiority,” adds Rzhin to request compulsory enlistment.

Putin has never been questioned like now in two decades of mandate. He hasn’t backed down on his decisions either, so whatever happens, the only sure thing is that he won’t decree Russia’s surrender. The problem is that he is not alone. His hard core has been encouraged to speak out, but it remains to be seen what the Army thinks about the causes of a stalled invasion, Putin’s leadership as a strategist and the future of the war itself. The Government shows greater sensitivity now than a few months ago in the search for commanders to dismiss because it knows that you should never step on a scorpion.