Battery manufacturing and software development would only compensate for half. The new jobs would fall to workers with a different profile than the current ones, warns the European association of suppliers, Clepa
As Europe debates whether or not to bring the end of the combustion car to 2035, the auto industry
fear not being able to adapt as fast as they would like in Brussels. Ending diesel, gasoline and hybrid cars by 2035, as the European Commission proposed in July in its Fit for 55 package, could destroy more than half a million jobs in the automotive auxiliary industry, according to a study by PwC Strategy &.
Only half of those jobs lost,
about 226,000, could be compensated with new jobs derived from the development of software for electric vehicles, the extraction of raw materials for batteries and their assembly, warns the study, commissioned by the European Association of Automotive Suppliers, Clepa. In addition, the new jobs generated by the transition, some 226,000, will fall mostly in profiles other than those that today are in charge of assembling equipment for diesel and gasoline cars.
“Value added and job creation in the future will depend on local battery production,” he categorically warns
Henning Rennert, partner of PwC Strateg &.
Sigrid de Vries, Clepa’s general secretary, warns of the “risks” of an approach focused solely on electric vehicles – the Commission’s proposal speaks of “reducing emissions by 100% compared to the 2021 level”, which would de facto banish cars diesel, gasoline and hybrids – “for the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of people.”
Doubts in the sector
Auto manufacturers themselves are divided on whether the market will be ready to wipe out the technology that has dominated mobility for a century in just 14 years. At the last Glasgow climate summit, groups such as Ford, General Motors, Volvo, Mercedes-Benz, Jaguar Land Rover and China’s BYD pledged to stop marketing thermal cars in major markets. An announcement from which the main manufacturers by volume worldwide, such as Volkswagen, Toyota or Stellantis, have taken down, although separately some of their brands, such as Audi or Opel, have announced commitments in that direction.
“Toyota will be ready to achieve a 100% reduction in CO2 in all new vehicles by 2035 in Western Europe, provided that then there is sufficient infrastructure for electric charging and hydrogen, as well as increases in renewable energy capacity,” said the last week the president of Toyota Motor Europe, Matt Harrison, putting the ball in the hands of the administrations.
The issue of infrastructure has become one of the great workhorses, along with incentives to help citizens jump into vehicles that, although clean, are also more expensive than conventional ones. “The proposal for recharging and refueling points for clean vehicles in the European Union lacks ambition and runs the risk of being further diluted,” according to Eric-Mark Huitema, director general of the European Association of Vehicle Manufacturers, Acea.
Being a headache for brands, the challenge is even greater for the auxiliary automotive industry, which employs 1.7 million people in Europe. Of these, 225,000 in Spain, and 72,000 directly linked to the production of thermal engines and gearboxes, the most threatened profiles, according to what
Jose Portilla, general director of the Spanish association Sernauto. Large players, such as Antolín or Gestamp, coexist in the sector with a plethora of SMEs and small specialized companies, with less access to capital to be able to invest in the transformation of their business. All of them, in addition, are subject to long-term contracts with manufacturers, which reduces their agility.
Of the total of 501,000 jobs that, according to the PwC study, would be obsolete before 2035; the bulk, about 70% “would probably be lost in a five-year period, from 2030 to 2035.” A regulatory framework is needed that is open to all available solutions, “claims Sigrid de Vries, from Clepa, who asks the regulator that is open to alternatives such as hybridization, green hydrogen and sustainable renewable fuels.
Neither the demand for alternative vehicles, although growing, is for now strong enough, which has also aroused misgivings in dealerships. “Europe is setting itself unattainable targets and is shooting itself in the foot. The transition has to take place, of course, but consumers have to be given time, “he adds.
Gerardo Perez, president of the federation of dealers Faconauto.
In 2020, only 5.4% of new vehicles sold in Europe were electric, a figure that in Spain stood at
3.73%, after growing 64%, according to data from the Spanish association of vehicle manufacturers, Anfac.
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