Since 2023, there have been six state elections and one European election in Germany. In most cases, the traffic light parties have not gained any votes.
Berlin – The state elections in Saxony and Thuringia are over. In addition to an unprecedentedly good performance by the AfDwhich even became the strongest force in Thuringia, the parties of the traffic light coalition lost without exception. The FDP slipped by 3.6 percentage points to 0.9 percent in Saxony and remained outside parliament, while in Thuringia it was thrown out of the state parliament after a loss of 3.9 percentage points with 1.1 percent.
The Greens only managed to enter parliament in Saxony with 5.1 percent – 3.5 percentage points less than in 2019. In Thuringia, they landed at 3.2 percent after losses of 2 percentage points. Compared to the last state elections, the SPD slipped by 0.4 percentage points to 7.3 percent in Saxony and by 2.2 percentage points to 6.1 percent in Thuringia.
The individual governing parties fared similarly in the remaining four state elections and the one European elections since 2023, although in some cases they won larger shares of the vote in absolute terms. It should be noted that none of them was ever particularly strong in Saxony or Thuringia. In Berlin, Bremen and Hesse, as well as – perhaps rather unexpectedly – in Bavaria, the situation is different. In any case, the European elections follow different dynamics than elections at national or state level.
Saxony and Thuringia crown series of losses for the traffic light parties in German elections
But first things first. The 2023 election year was ushered in by the repeat election in the federal capital in February. The reason for this unscheduled vote was the decision of the Berlin Constitutional Court on November 16, 2022 to declare the election of September 26, 2021 invalid due to massive irregularities. The 2016 election therefore serves as a comparison election. After a loss of 2.1 percentage points, the FDP was thrown out of the Berlin House of Representatives, while the Greens were able to improve by 3.2 percentage points to 18.4 percent. The SPD lost 3.2 percentage points, but still occupied the Red City Hall with 18.4 percent alongside the new strongest force, the CDU.
After the SPD failed to receive the most votes in Bremen in 2019 for the first time since the Second World War, it regained the top position from the CDU in May 2023 with an increase of 4.9 percentage points to 29.8 percent. Its green coalition partner suffered a loss of 5.5 percentage points, but still ended up with 11.9 percent. In the Hanseatic city, the FDP narrowly managed to enter the state parliament with 5.1 percent, although it lost 0.8 percentage points.
Although the SPD lost most of the time, it governed in many states with
In Bavaria, where Markus Söder’s CSU is still certain of victory, the Greens came fourth behind the Christian Social Union, AfD and Free Voters with 14.4 percent in October 2023, despite being 3.2 percentage points lower than in 2018. The SPD’s share fell by 1.3 percentage points to 8.4 percent, while the Liberals fell out of the state parliament after losing 2.1 percent.
All three traffic light parties remained in the state parliament in Hesse in the election, which took place on the same day as in Bavaria. Nevertheless, the CDU maintained its leading position and the AfD moved into second place, ahead of the SPD, which slipped by 4.7 percentage points to 15.1 percent. This was the worst result for the Hessian Social Democrats to date. The Greens lost a similar amount, 5 percentage points, and remained at 14.8 percent. The FDP narrowly missed the five percent hurdle after losing 2.5 percentage points.
In 2019, the European elections boosted green chancellor ambitions – not in 2024
The European elections are seen by many as a second-class election in which voters do not necessarily vote as they would in a federal election. Small parties are given the chance to actively shape the policies of the European Parliament because there is no five percent hurdle. In addition, extreme and protest parties often perform better than in national elections. In June 2024, Germany voted on the filling of 96 of the 720 parliamentary seats in Strasbourg.
With a loss of 8.6 percentage points, the Greens were the biggest losers, ending up at 11.9 percent. They thus lost almost all of their gains from the 2019 European elections, when their good result of 20.5 percent had raised hopes of becoming chancellor. The SPD fell by 1.9 percent to 13.9 percentage points in 2024. Meanwhile, the FDP was surprisingly stable, losing only 0.2 percentage points with a result of 5.2 percent.
Ambivalence characterizes the election results of the traffic light parties
If the most recent results from Saxony and Thuringia are taken into account, the last seven elections in Germany paint an ambivalent picture with a clear negative trend for the traffic light parties. The SPD and the Greens lost votes in six out of seven elections. Nevertheless, the Social Democrats are part of three of the four newly formed governments so far, in Bremen even as senior partner in a coalition with the Greens and the Left. Elsewhere, however, the Greens did not manage to gain government.
Things look considerably bleaker for the FDP. They have lost in each of the seven elections that have taken place in Germany since 2023. In one, they remained outside of parliament, and in three others they were thrown out of the respective state parliaments. Against this background, it may not be surprising that the calls for a coalition break are loudest among the Liberals. (Michael Kister)
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