The wave of change that brought Gustavo Petro to power in 2022 did not begin with him. A few years earlier, in the 2019 local elections, alternative candidates gave the first warning that Colombians were tired of traditional power. In large cities like Bogotá, Medellín or Cali, the triumph of politicians far from the usual parties and with a certain progressive nuance marked the elections. A desire for change that grew in the hands of the candidate Petro and culminated with the election of the first left-wing Government in the modern history of Colombia. This Sunday citizens return to the polls to elect governors and mayors. And more than measuring the president’s popularity, the force that brought him to power and is already showing the first signs of exhaustion will be tested.
Despite the attempts of the media and analysts to read this local election day in a national key, several details prevent the results from being converted into a plebiscite for the president. First of all, in these elections those who extend the electric lighting network, build kindergartens or pave roads are chosen. Beyond the ideology or party that supports them, citizens tend to vote for the person who will lead the mandate. A logic that is imposed more strongly in this scenario, in which political forces have multiplied to reach 37 different brands.
Secondly, the Historical Pact, Petro’s party, barely presents candidates. Although the original idea was to strengthen the coalition in the territories to accompany the work of the central government, the difficult internal relations between the different forces that make it up and the rapid decline in Petro’s popularity have prevented the naming of consensus candidates. In the most important cities of the country it does not have them or it has candidates with no chance of winning, just like in the main governorates. Beyond Bogotá, the president has little to lose or gain. In the capital, however, he puts his honor on the line so as not to miss the first elections that cross his mandate.
He imposed this pressure on himself by making some pro-Government events and marches coincide with the local campaign, which many read as a veiled way of promoting his candidate, Gustavo Bolívar, despite being prohibited. Bolívar, furthermore, spoke ahead of time by tying his victory to the future of the coalition. “In the Mayor’s Office of Bogotá we are risking the survival of the Historical Pact,” he said at the beginning of the campaign. His words and his remote chances of being elected, although he could force a second round if his results are better than the polls anticipate, have turned the battle for Bogotá into the battle for the president.
At the head of all the polls in the capital is Carlos Fernando Galán, a centrist politician and son of the presidential candidate Luis Carlos Galán, murdered in 1989 by order of the Medellín cartel. In 2019, Galán came second in votes behind Claudia López, one of the greatest exponents of that wave of change in 2019 and who ended his term with almost 60% disapproval. He is not the only second who could succeed now. Also in Bucaramanga and Cali, amid low popularity ratings for the outgoing mayors, the second most voted four years ago start as favorites.
In the rest of the country, the territorial clans and traditional power once again start with an advantage in the electoral battle to dynamite that alternative wave of four years ago. In the regions, clans, families, networks and impossible coalitions that support one candidate or another thanks to agreements that can respond to everything except the ideological question function more than parties. An example of this is Alejandro Char, whose powerful family is related to numerous cases of corruption, but where no one overshadows him in the Barranquilla Mayor’s Office. That was the power that was repudiated in 2019, but that could return with renewed strength this Sunday.
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In Medellín, the country’s second city, the turnaround four years ago was a huge surprise. An unknown Daniel Quintero, who ran for signatures, managed to unseat Uribism in his territorial fiefdom. His tenure has ended tainted by the shadow of corruption and with a city united in its rejection. Fico Gutiérrez, who was already mayor of the city, will most likely win again and, although he dresses as an independent with his own new party, he was the candidate of the entire right and the traditional power in the 2022 presidential elections.
Monday’s headlines will once again tie the results to the fate of President Petro, but his destiny will continue to be played out after this appointment. In a deeply presidential country, territorial elected officials need financing from the central government to carry out their promises, so it is not entirely certain that the opposition from the regions will be frontal. The Executive will take advantage of this need to not remain isolated.
In any case, Petro will have to take good note of what happens on Sunday. Regardless of what happens in Bogotá, if the results confirm what the polls say, the country that a few years ago embraced alternative politicians is once again seeking shelter in the same hands as always. That will be the clearest message that will come out of the polls and that goes directly to the heart of the national government.
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