Economist Belyaev predicted an exchange rate of 95-96 rubles per dollar by the end of the year
The ratio of the ruble and the dollar depends on the general state of the economies of the two countries, said Candidate of Economic Sciences, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev. In a conversation with Lenta.ru, he described the future of the course until the end of the year.
“The current actions of the Central Bank have made it possible to wipe away the speculative raid and smooth out the market impact on the exchange rate, but, of course, this is not able to radically change the situation and trend,” the expert shared.
On the one hand, the Russian economy has revived, he noted. On the other hand, at the current key rate it will be difficult for it to show any dynamic pace of development and increase its efficiency, the analyst believes. Therefore, according to him, the current strengthening of the ruble will not become a trend.
“The current strengthening of the ruble will not result in a strengthening trend, it will result in stabilization, and stabilization will be at the level of 95-96 rubles per dollar and 97-98 per euro. We can assume that equilibrium has been established in this area, and, apparently, we will see such figures before the end of the month with some fluctuations, but still with an emerging trend towards a depreciation of the ruble against the dollar, but not very noticeable. This is not only a forecast for November, but also, most likely, until the end of the year,” Belyaev said.
On October 27, the Bank of Russia raised the key rate by two points at once, to 15 percent. In four months, the figure doubled – until July 2023, the rate remained at 7.5 percent. The tightening was explained by increased inflation risks and rising inflation expectations.
During trading on the Moscow Exchange on October 31, the US dollar fell to a record low. The rate dropped to 92 rubles for the first time since the beginning of August 2023.
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