The big surprise of the 2021 elections was the advance of the opposition in Mexico City that left a capital divided in two. To the east, painted in cherry and governed by Morena; to the west, blue and in the hands of the PRI – PAN – PRD. Three years later the story is completely different: Morena has won 11 of 16 mayoralties and has recovered the disputed ground. The ruling party has also won the Head of Government by a wide margin and the majority of deputies in the local Congress.
The drag effect of Claudia Sheinbaum in the presidential elections, the mobilization capacity of Morena in the mayoralties, the failed commitment of the opposition to focus on Public Security or the massive vote of young people and older adults are some of the reasons given by the experts after the results. Mexico City was always a territory that the ruling party and, above all, the next president, did not want to miss. “The election in Mexico City would not be fully explained without the effect that the presidential election had,” says Reynaldo Ortega, professor of International Studies at the College of Mexico.
Claudia Sheinbaum swept 59% of the votes on June 2. Her partner, Clara Brugada, took 48% in the capital. “Without a doubt, Sheinbaum’s figure has influenced the outcome of the mayoral elections. Most of the electorate tends to vote in blocs, that is, they generally vote for the candidates of the party that is running for president,” Ortega points out. The expert also considers that the long campaigns and internal party processes favored both candidates to be more popular than their competitors.
In these elections, Morena has recovered the mayoralties of Tlalpan, Azcapotzalco, Álvaro Obregón and Magdalena Contreras, which join Gustavo A. Madero, Venustiano Carranza, Iztacalco, Iztapalapa, Tláhuac, Milpa Alta and Xochimilco, giving it maximum control. “It means controlling the most important city in the country in political, cultural and economic terms,” says Karolina Gilas, professor at the UNAM Institute of Legal Sciences. In this count he loses, however, some of those that concentrate the greatest purchasing power: Miguel Hidalgo, Cuauhtémoc, Benito Juárez and Cuajimalpa. A particular failure to let Cuauhtémoc escape, faithful to the left until a few years ago.
“Succeeding in Mexico City should give him tremendous peace and means having a presidency with half the problems that he would have if the opposition controlled the capital,” adds Carlos Pérez Ricart, professor at CIDE. “In Morena they understood that it was not a favorable scenario for the opposition to win the capital and they decided to pull evenly, even though Clara Brugada was not in Sheinbaum’s initial plans for the city,” adds Gilas. Experts agree that this interest in winning Mexico City, the jewel in the crown where Morena was born, translated into a special involvement of the candidate in the campaign, “with many visits and a lot of presence,” says Gilas.
Tlalpan, the origins of Sheinbaum
Among the priorities was always to recover Tlalpan, for example, a bastion of the left and the place where Sheinbaum began his career in politics. “Morena has been working a lot in the territory and they had a very strong vote mobilization operation insisting that people go to vote,” says Gilas. “Sheinbaum trusted a lot in the bases that Morena has in Mexico City, which are very strong, and in the political work that the nation’s servants have done,” says Ortega. Something that could be seen after the victory of Gabriela Osorio in Tlalpan, one of the teams closest to Sheinbaum in the capital.
Another key to Morena’s success in the mayoralty is in the profile of the voters. Many young people and older adults opted for the ruling party. “There is clearly an identification with the universal pension program for older adults and the promise to expand it. Another important group in comparative terms were young people to whom the ruling coalition promised that opportunities for access to secondary and higher education would be expanded, in a country in which 30% of those who finish secondary school do not have access to Baccalaureate. says the Colmex specialist.
Nor does it ignore the high amount of resources that were allocated to the campaigns. As for example in the mayor’s office Álvaro Obregón, who returned to the hands of Morena with Javier López Casarín at the helm, after they lost him due to the disastrous management of Layda Sansores, current governor of Campeche. “It was a very impressive campaign in terms of billboards, meetings, grassroots mobilization and thanks to the support that Marcelo Ebrard gave to Casarín,” says Ortega.
The failure of losing Cuauhtémoc
On the contrary, the failure that losing the Cuauhtémoc mayoralty represented is striking. “It is a complex universe, because it is a delegation with one of the highest income levels and where there are also very strong interest groups that have to do with street vendors and criminal groups that help mobilize the vote,” says the professor. of Colmex. Morena has announced that she will challenge the results of some polling stations in Cuauhtémoc. Alessandra Rojo de la Vega, from the PRI – PAN – PRD coalition, was running for mayor against Caty Monreal, from the ruling party and daughter of the senator and historical leader Ricardo Monreal.
Analysts consider that it is important to focus on the role that the opposition played in the campaign. Ortega considers that one of the mistakes of Santiago Taboada’s alliance was insisting on insecurity as one of the pillars of the campaign “when in Mexico City that is not as big a problem as in Guanajuato or Michoacán,” he comments. Gilas believes that the candidate’s connection to the so-called “real estate cartel” did not help either. “All of Taboada’s links with the real estate cartel, although he is not accused, took their toll on him, added to the discredit of the PRI in CDMX and the PRD losing a lot of strength,” he adds.
Gilas explains that it took a toll on Taboada to represent the most conservative position. “Mexico City is the most progressive entity in the country and there was some concern about what would happen to rights and certain achievements such as abortion and equal marriage,” he explains. Both experts agree that the “programmatic poverty” of the coalition worked against them and the Citizen Movement attracted more attention with its proposals. “It had a more sophisticated program that spoke precisely to the electorate, a more university-educated electorate, a more educated electorate. So I think that undoubtedly also influenced the opposition to be divided,” Ortega emphasizes.
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