At first glance, the disturbing message that Russian President Vladimir Putin has sent to the world with his invasion of Ukraine is that there is no way to stop it, at least within the world order established after the end of World War II, and what the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is incapable of defending anyone, neither its members nor those aspiring to join, including Ukraine.
(You can also read: Ukraine affirms that 198 civilians have died since the beginning of the invasion)
This message is reinforced by the fact that even before the Kremlin gave the green light to the aggression, NATO, created in 1949 as a military alliance to contain the Soviet Union in the bipolar world of that time, anticipated that it would not send troops to the field of battle and that its members would be limited to supplying weapons and seeking intelligence assistance.
That public statement, added to those of the US president, Joe Biden, in the same sense, ended up becoming a letter of marque for Moscow to convince itself that war was the way to go, since they were not going to have a rival of their own. size in front, according to several analysts.
“They could have spared their sincerity to at least leave Putin a margin of doubt that there could eventually be an armed response from NATO. That would have introduced an unknown factor into the equation that could have changed or delayed the decisions of the Russian government,” analyst Santiago Espíndola told EL TIEMPO from Buenos Aires. Although he clarified that, for not being a member country, “the possibilities of NATO to intervene in Ukraine were dramatically limited, and, of course, that is clear to Moscow.”
Adding to that feeling of helplessness was the fact that some of the main leaders of the European Union played hard through diplomatic channelsto later feel deceived by the Russian leader, who made them believe that there could be a window of negotiation, when in fact he had already decided to attack.
(In Context: Why is Russia Invading Ukraine? Here’s What You Need to Know)
“Yes, there was a fold,” French President Emmanuel Macron said of Putin. “There was already a deliberate and conscious decision on his part to launch the war when we could still negotiate peace,” the president said at the end of an extraordinary European summit in Brussels.
Crash landing
Something similar happened with the almost newcomer German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, who was directly linked to the diplomatic attempt to persuade Putin, with the authority that being the leader of a country that has had an appeasement attitude towards Moscow It has allowed to have businesses and close ties, especially in the energy sector, without delving into the true nature of the regime. That is why the invasion took Berlin so much by surprise.
But perhaps the Ukraine issue has achieved the opposite effect of what Putin expected, and of the weakened alliance whose partners distrusted the real commitment of the main power, the United States, after Donald Trump’s passage through the White House, and of the fissures among its members, it is moving to an alliance that is coming together in the face of the Russian threat and is acting in a coordinated manner for the first time in a long time.
“Already the crisis is strengthening the commitment of key states to NATO. Paradoxically, this move that Putin is adopting ends up having repercussions precisely on what he is seeking to avoid, which is a consolidation of this alliance. Much of his strategy towards the European continent seeks to sow division, polarization and fragmentation in European relations, including in the field of security. This may be one of the unexpected and paradoxical repercussions of this invasion of Ukraine,” analyst Arlene Tickner told this newspaper.
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And Biden has been concerned in recent days to reassure his colleagues in the alliance that the United States is with them. Hence the harsh warning issued to Putin that they will not cede “one centimeter” of NATO’s territoriality, and the strengthening of its presence in the region.
“My goal from the beginning was to make sure I kept NATO and the European Union on the same page,” he said in an interview on Brian Tyler Cohen’s radio show. “Not only is NATO more united, look at what is happening with respect to Finland, look at what is happening with respect to Sweden (…). I mean that (Putin) is producing just the opposite effect to what he was looking for,” the president said, referring to signs from these two countries, which are not partners in the alliance, that they might consider joining after Moscow’s threats of “serious consequences” if they enter. In his opinion, Putin thought that he “could divide them, creating a large opening that he could pass through, and that has not happened.”
But the ultimate test will be if Putin makes the decision to touch any of the states in the alliance. There you will really know how consolidated it is.
(Also: Russia and Ukraine: the images portray the military invasion)
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