The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. The phrase that usually sums up any report on inequality in society – whether local, national or global – also applies to climate change. At least, today, since in the future no one will be able to make a profit if there is no urgent change. For now, geography makes the real difference: the north of the planet benefits economically from the transformation in the environment while the south sinks further and further. These are the main conclusions of a new report from the Climate Change Hub at the University of Delaware (United States) called Loss and Damage Today: How climate change is impacting output and capital and capital).
“Climate change is also exacerbating current global inequalities, with several countries with high purchasing power currently experiencing net gains, including an average increase in European countries of 4.7% of their Gross Domestic Product,” the study concludes. This improvement in the Old Continent as a whole faces the losses of 14.1% and 11.2% suffered by Southeast Asia or Southern Africa. “These losses highlight the disproportionate burden imposed by climate change on developing countries,” the report states.
In the week in which the United Nations National Conference on Climate Change (COP 28) begins – where the scope of a fund to solve the different impacts of global warming will be analyzed – the article from the American University presents its conclusions after employing 58 different models and shedding light on the consequences already suffered rather than talking about assumptions. In general terms, climate change has already caused a loss of 1.8% in 2022, although when weighted by population the figure rises to 6.3%. Precisely, this difference between both figures really reflects the disproportionality of the losses depending on the country or area. Be that as it may, the world loses up to 2.1 trillion dollars every year due to this phenomenon; approximately, the GDP of Canada (and 50% more than Spain’s 1.4 billion). If the focus is extended to 1992, when the Rio de Janeiro Summit was held, which marked a before and after in the climate debate, the accumulated losses would be 21 trillion dollars (something like the annual GDP of the United States). ), which shows that the situation is worsening without remission.
Because it is a matter of time and what is good for a few today will be bad for everyone not long from now. The increase in temperature recorded in recent decades determines the current result: Russia, for example, has seen its GDP improve by 4.2% due to milder winters that have boosted its activity, according to the study, while Saudi Arabia has lost 11.3% of its wealth due to falls in labor productivity and extra costs in infrastructure.
Located in an environment closer to the neutral effect, the two leading world powers stand out: the United States and China. The North American one, in fact, shows a zero balance, between the subtraction of the increasingly higher temperatures (in the south of the country) and the milder winters (in the north). The Asian giant is already suffering and is adding cuts equivalent to 1.8% of its activity, just the world average.
Spain is currently experiencing a similar setback, for which the report points to a 2.2% decline in its GDP. Although it is in the group of the most developed countries (in the terminology of all international organizations), it is one of the few European states with a negative balance. Greece and Portugal are the other euro zone states in the same situation and Italy is almost positive. The southern European flank, therefore, already has problems in its economies.
The complete opposite of the north. Removing the statistical anecdote of the Faroe Islands (its GDP is 37.1% better), Norway, Belarus and Iceland have recorded increases of more than 15% in their gross domestic product due to the general improvement in winters in terms of temperature. Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom, Austria, the Netherlands… the most powerful economies are flying with the wind in favor of climate change.
“In terms of large economic groups, developed countries show minimal losses or gains due to climate change, while less developed countries face an average loss of 8.3% of GDP. This increases current global inequality and urges comprehensive strategies that address the disproportionate burden suffered by developing countries,” concludes the study from the University of Delaware.
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