And, again, the main dilemma: who should contribute? The so-called Global South is pressing for money to take the path that leads from developed countries to lagging countries, which, furthermore, have not played a historical role in the climate crisis; The industrialized world, on the other hand, demands, above all, decarbonization commitmentsalso for a matter of industrial and technological competitiveness. We must not forget, therefore, that China’s role is ambiguous, although Beijing could show openings capable of increasing its international prestige.
The many resignations of the leaders
Hundreds of planes crowd the skies over the beautiful Azerbaijani capital, which overlooks the Caspian Sea, bringing delegations from almost two hundred countries to the city. Among the first to arrive, last week, was the American.
On Tuesday and Wednesday the Summit of Heads of State and Government. Many casualties this year among the great leaders of the planet: The outgoing President of the United States, Joe Biden, is not expected. is also absent Ursula von der Leyenwhich is grappling with the formation of the new European Commission, which is scheduled to take office in early December; instead, the Climate Action Commissioner (probably confirmed), the Dutchman Wopke Hoekstra, who enjoys a reputation as an excellent diplomat. Brussels’ negotiating position has been affected by the impact of the tragic floods of recent days in Valencia, with the need to dedicate more resources to adaptation. In this sense, the presence of the Spanish Pedro Sánchez will be relevant.
German Chancellor Scholz, embroiled in a government crisis, and the French president Emmanuel Macron, Due to disagreements with Baku on the Azerbaijani-Armenian issue, they will be absent: with him, the majority of French NGOs will not participate in the work, the transalpine development agency will be absent, and the delegates who have come to the city have received extra training in terms of security.
The Chinese President will also stay at home Xi Jinping (who will send the new climate envoy, Liu Zhenmin, to Azerbaijan), the Russian President Vladimir Putinand the Brazilian President Lulawho will be replaced by the Minister of the Environment, Marina Silva. Also absent are leaders of Japan, Australia (another big polluter) and Mexico. Highlights the decision of Papua New Guineaone of the countries most affected by climate change, to boycott the work of COP29. We will not go to Cop29, it is a waste of time,” declared Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko. “There is no point in going. Every major greenhouse gas emitter in the world is pledging millions of dollars to help combat climate change. But I can already tell you that later everything will be handed over to consultants. “They will ask the countries in question not to go too far.”
Instead, the UK should be there with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is looking for a showcase to relaunch the country and could present the new climate promise. Reservations have not yet been lifted, at the time of writing, about the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The President’s first international outing was precisely at the 2022 Conference, in Sharm el Sheikh, a few days after taking office. Visibly excited as she prepared to go on stage, she was able to withstand the impact of the politics of Earth’s greats afterwards. Rumors about whether or not he will be present continue (among other things due to alleged health problems); and after all, Italy has no small agreement with Baku.
The impact of the US elections
The elephant in the room is the US elections, with Donald Trump’s recent victory over Kamala Harris. Trump had withdrawn the United States from the Paris Agreement in 2016; It was then Joe Biden who rejoined the climate team as soon as he arrived at the White House.
The problem is that the true intentions of the New York tycoon, known for his volatile humor, remain difficult to interpret. Trump has signaled his intention to withdraw once again from the Paris Agreement, but more than that: it would mean, now, even abandoning the UN Convention that oversees the COPs.” A move that would lead Washington to not participate in the negotiating tables. negotiation or even as an observer,” observes Jacopo Bencini, researcher at the Carbon Markets Hub at the European University Institute in Florence and president of the think tank Italian Climate Network. “The question is how to face a US exit without the global sanitary cordon of 2016. Of the three major actors in the global climate, only two could still be in play: via Washington, there remain the European Union and China, whose relations, however, are shaken by the issue of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” And he continues: “It is a question of coalition formation. The United States is inevitably a major player in the climate, both due to its historical emissions and its current extractive policies that include controversial techniques such as fracking: investment, with Trump, will resume. Of course, the United States has never admitted its historical responsibility: but having them on board in the negotiations favors the search for”alternative solutions.
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