The presidency of the climate summit being held in Dubai, COP28, launched this Monday afternoon (local time) its proposed agreement, which includes references to fossil fuels. The text, which must be accepted by the representatives of the almost 200 countries that meet at this conference, refers directly to fossil fuels (something that the most oil-producing countries reject) although it only talks about progressively “reducing” their use and consumption and of its “substitution”.
And it is in this last case – in the references to the “substitution of fossil fuels” in “energy systems” – where a great door opens for the continued use of oil, gas and coal. Since “reduction and elimination technologies, such as carbon capture, utilization and storage, and low-carbon hydrogen production” are cited as alternatives. The thesis defended by oil-producing countries is that fossil fuels can continue to be used with techniques to capture their emissions, something that has been talked about for years, but which, in addition to being expensive, has not yet been fully developed.
The text launched by the summit presidency, in the hands of the United Arab Emirates as host of the COP, also proposes “gradually eliminating inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and do not address energy poverty or just transitions.” , as soon as possible”. It is also advocated to triple renewable capacity and double efficiency, as expected. It is committed to a gradual but also rapid elimination of the production of electricity with coal without capturing emissions and to put limitations on new plants that use this type of fuel.
But the key point is the one that refers to the reduction (not elimination, as some countries, including EU members, requested) “both the consumption and production of fossil fuels.” It is added: “in a fair, orderly and equitable manner to achieve net zero before, or around 2050.” This allusion to reduction and not elimination has aroused criticism from some environmental groups and ministers present at the summit. Like the Marshall Islands, whose representatives have described the proposal as “unacceptable” because they demand “the gradual elimination of fossil fuels.”
The European Union has spoken along the same lines. Teresa Ribera, the Spanish vice president who is negotiating on behalf of the Twenty-seven at this COP, has rejected that the text does not set a clear path for the progressive elimination of fossil fuels. Negotiations to try to bring positions closer are expected to continue overnight and into tomorrow, according to the vice president.
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Because the presidency's agreement proposal now has to be studied by the countries meeting in Dubai, where the negotiations are being tough. The Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, attended the climate summit this Monday where the central debate is the call to gradually abandon all fossil fuels. Guterres has urged the almost 200 countries present at this conference to abandon “arbitrary red lines, entrenched positions and blocking tactics.” The head of the UN climate change area, Simon Stiell, pointed out the same thing a few hours earlier. who has also urged negotiators not to maintain obstructionist positions that keep the end of a summit that should end on Tuesday in suspense.
Guterres, when asked by journalists – around 4,000 are accredited to this COP28 – has admitted what the majority of those who are following these conversations think: one of the central aspects for the success of this COP28 is that it reaches “a a consensus on the need to phase out fossil fuels.” He has spoken of eliminating, not reducing or replacing.
However, its mere mention in the final agreements has so far aroused resounding and public rejection from countries highly dependent on oil exports, such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq. That mention is one of the fundamental aspects of this summit, in which other less important points on adaptation to climate change and financing must be approved. But those other texts have been blocked for days by Saudi Arabia, in what many negotiators describe as a tactic to stop mentions of the end of fossil fuels. That is what the words of Guterres and Stiell point to, although neither of them has mentioned a specific country.
Guterres has insisted that it is “essential” that the global assessment that will be made at this COP28 of the Paris Agreement recognizes “the need to gradually eliminate all fossil fuels in a time frame consistent with the 1.5 degree limit and to accelerate a fair, equitable and orderly energy transition for all.”
To try to unblock this situation, Guterres has proposed that emissions cuts, which are linked to the reduction in the use and production of oil, gas and coal, be done at two speeds. A faster one for large emitters. In addition, richer nations must economically support countries with fewer resources. “Not all countries should phase out fossil fuels at the same time. The principle of differentiated common responsibilities applies,” he stressed.
On one side of the board in this game on fuels are a large group of nations, publicly led by the European Union, that do not admit leaving COP28 without a clear agreement in which, among other things, the need to follow a route to end hydrocarbons. In the exact opposite position are the States that produce and are most dependent on these fuels, which do not want any explicit mention of oil and gas. The leading and public voice of this rejection has been Saudi Arabia, which was later joined by Iraq. They ask that we talk about greenhouse gas emissions and not about the sources that generate them, that is, fuels.
In an apparent intermediate position are China and the United States, with a low public profile; They are the two main powers in the world, the two nations that emit the most gases into the atmosphere and the leading producers of coal and oil, respectively. Two weeks before the summit started, both nations signed a joint declaration in which they were committed to multiplying the power of renewable energy in the world by three to “accelerate the replacement of coal, oil and gas generation.” Tripling renewable power is another of the calls that is expected to come out of the summit and many believe that it is in that context that the elimination or reduction of fuels should be requested. That is, urging the replacement of some energy sources with others.
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