The concerns surrounding the electoral calendar in Venezuela ahead of 2024

The year 2024 does not look easy at all for Venezuela. The political panorama is complex when presidential elections are scheduled for the second half of the year and two events are added: the possible new actions of the International Criminal Court on the State and the tensions between Caracas and Georgetown over the Essequibo territory.

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At the moment there is no date for these elections and no official candidates. For Chavismo, it is expected that it will be Nicolás Maduro, to seek his third term. On the opposition side, María Corina Machado. The first does not reach 10 points in the polls and the second is disqualified by the ruling party, that is to say, without the possibility to apply for public positions by order of the Comptroller's Office.

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The national leader, who made progress by obtaining the release of Álex Saab (accused by the United States of being his front man) and strengthening his dialogue with Washington, said before the end of the year that it was “premature” to confirm whether he will seek re-election.

“Only God knows… No Diosdado, God,” he said in an interview with the Telesur channel, referring to the name of the vice president of the Government party, Diosdado Cabello.

And he said this because Cabello has insisted that Maduro will be the candidate of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Psuv) in 2024, the year in which Chavismo celebrates 25 years in power.

Although Maduro has managed to progressively overcome the international isolation to which he was subjected with the arrival of Juan Guaidó in 2019, he does not have the necessary popularity to win the elections. This was demonstrated with the December 3 referendum for the Essequibo territory, in which the Electoral Council assured that there were 10 million votes, but the opposition insists that there were only 2.1 million votes.

Maduro's candidacy is, in purely electoral terms, the weakest that could exist in Venezuela. This is what Wálter Molina, a Venezuelan political scientist, considers.

“There is no way to see Nicolás Maduro winning a fairly clean election, neither against Machado, with whom he would lose in a landslide, nor against another opposition leader who faces him in unity,” says Molina EL TIEMPO.

Although Maduro's situation is difficult, for some analysts, the comment about his candidacy “was a political prank by Maduro,” as political scientist Ricardo Ríos estimated it in statements to the AFP agency.

Believing that she will not run would be taken as “evidence of a tremendous crisis” within Chavismo and “if María Corina Machado is allowed to legally participate in the elections, there is no doubt that she would sweep,” said political scientist Luis Salamanca, also to the AFP.

The problem is that the Machado issue has not yet been resolved. On December 15, as Chavismo and the opposition agreed in their last negotiations, the opposition, who won the primaries with 2.3 million votes, which translates into 90 percent, went to the Supreme Court of Justice to request that the disqualification, but until today there is no response.

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“I do not rule out that others take office to confront Maduro. A couple of months ago it was impossible to believe it because Machado has an extremely radical position, as radical as the regime,” political scientist Leandro Rodríguez Linares explains to this newspaper.

And this statement is based on the recent statements of Machado, who said that “if they repress and touch one, another will reinforce him and the task will be done because there are millions of us,” which many interpreted as a possibility that another could replace his candidacy.

For Rodríguez Linares, this happens because the “hidden politics” conversations, those that are not aired, “are red hot” and this has to do with the fact that the “international community is apparently determined to change the internal political landscape and to do so it is doing some demands, such as, among other things, the cessation of radicalism.”

Now, what needs to be taken into account is who Machado's successor could be. It is necessary to be clear “both in the way in which they would choose this successor, knowing that the great voter must be Machado herself,” is what political scientist Walter Molina believes.

Another point that Molina considers important is the timing of the possible announcement, since “it would be illogical to propose a name with a lot of time in advance, since that would show some weakness without having yet warmed up the people electorally, and it would also give the government a chance to disqualify to that person”.

On Maduro's side, there has been speculation about possible substitutes, such as his wife Cilia Flores, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, the president of the National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, Diosdado Cabello himself, or the controversial governor of Carabobo, Rafael Lacava. .

Even regarding Machado, Cabello said this Monday that “at this point, the one who is disqualified is not going, the others should not come with lies. Their main objective is violence and setting up a structure for violence.”

“They all have their merits and possibilities, the problem is that either they bring together the Psuv and not the people, or they bring the people together and not the Psuv,” a source from the ruling party told this newspaper, also recalling that in this At the moment the ruling party does not have the number of votes that Hugo Chávez left them, due to factors such as the 8 million Venezuelans abroad, the discontent of the militants and the apathy, but there is a key piece that Chavismo will bet: the recovery of the economy.

“If the economy continues to take better steps, even if they are small as it has been taking,” it may be a determining factor to have maturity again for the period 2024-2030.

ANA MARÍA RODRÍGUEZ BRAZÓN
TIME CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS