The Central Bank has warned of the possibility of exhausting the liquid part of the National Welfare Fund in 2025
In the event of a global crisis and worsening relations between the US and China, the risk scenario of the Central Bank of Russia will be realized, as a result of which it will be necessary to actively use the National Welfare Fund (NWF). This is stated in the regulator’s published statement project “The main directions of the unified state monetary and credit policy.”
Under this policy, the liquid part of the fund, that is, the part that is available for spending, will be exhausted as early as 2025. The Central Bank cites high interest rates and the accumulated imbalance in global financial markets as the reason for the global upheavals.
Separately, experts acknowledge the threat of deglobalization, that is, fragmentation into trade blocs headed by the largest economies. The process will also hit Russia, because it will provoke a significant drop in prices for energy resources and raw materials. Thus, the authorities will have to neutralize the internal shock by means of monetary injections.
According to the Central Bank, the budget rule will need to be changed with a transition to a base oil price of $40 per barrel by 2027, which will avoid increased budget expenditures. Also, in the case of a negative scenario, inflation is expected to be at 13-15 percent, and the key rate will average 20 to 22 percent per annum.
As of August 1, the volume of liquid assets of the National Welfare Fund amounted to 4.665 trillion rubles, and the total volume was 12.277 trillion rubles.
#Central #Bank #acknowledged #threat #zeroing #National #Welfare #Fund