During a political event in April 2020, then-Democratic candidate Joe Biden released a phrase that caused surprise but also some reassurance. His possible presidency, he told them, would be a “transitional” one whose main objective was to prevent another four years of Donald Trump in the White House.
Most interpreted it as an attempt to silence the fears that were already circulating due to his advanced age and cognitive abilities. It was not for less. Biden, at 78, was already at that time the oldest candidate with a real chance of reaching the Oval Office, and would become, if re-elected, the only octogenarian to lead the world’s main power (he would reach from 82 and would come out of 86).
The theory was that during that early period would ‘mature’ another figure, probably Vice President Kamala Harris –woman, Afro and immigrant– who would respond more to the preferences of a young and progressive electorate, which is the foundation of the Democratic Party.
But those plans, apparently, have remained in the pipeline. After months of speculation, President Biden officially announced this week that he will seek the party’s nomination for the 2024 elections. Something that is taken for granted, since there is no one in his path who has a real chance of challenging him.
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“I want to finish the job started. The question we are faced with is whether in the future we want more or less rights, more or less liberties. I know what the answer is and I think you do too. We cannot be complacent at this time. And that is why I am going to seek re-election, ”said the president when confirming his nomination.
The ‘vice’ did not work
And although the announcement was coming, it was not an easy decision. Rather, the result of a whole political and electoral calculation that has been taking shape in these last two years and that also responds to the movements in the internal race of the Republican Party, where Biden’s contender will come from.
The question we are facing is whether in the future we want more or less rights, more or less liberties
According to Alex Samuels, from the 538 portal, one of the factors that weighed the most was the lack of a better alternative. “Harris, who was the natural option to receive the flag, never caught on. AND although other names such as California Governor Gavin Newsom were mentioned, they were unknown nationally.
In other words, that “old acquaintance is better than new to know” ended up prevailing.
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In addition, this analyst maintains, having supported another figure would have fractured the Democratic Party throughout a contentious electoral process to choose a new nominee. This is often an advantage for the party in power, as it allows it to save its energies for the general campaign while the opposition weakens during the primary elections.
And in the absence of an obvious replacement, it was also wise to ignore the advantage of running for president. History proves it: very few presidents –Trump, George W. Bush and Jimmy Carter, in modern times– have not managed to get re-elected.
At the same time, the resurrection of Trump as a possible candidate for the Republicans was another factor that influenced, and quite a bit. In November of last year, and after the mediocre performance in the legislative elections -they had everything to sweep, but they ended up winning the House of Representatives by a handful of seats and losing the Senate-, it was thought that the Republicans were ready to give him the go-ahead. back to the former president, to whom they attributed the fiasco.
A Trump, in addition, that cost them the White House and Congress in 2020 and the legislative majorities in 2018. Others were emerging in his replacement, such as the governor of Florida Ron DeSantis, who on the contrary swept the elections of the 2022. DeSantis, a rising politician at just 44 years old, was seen as the ideal candidate to represent them, as he picked up the flags of Trumpism but without the negative charge with which the former president drags. And in that scenario, a generational replacement made more sense. in the Democratic ranks, well Biden, at 82, did not see himself as the ideal opponent to neutralize a DeSantis. In fact, his candidacy generated anxiety in the Democratic ranks due to a possible hemorrhage in young voters and independents.
The case that changed everything
But those variables have changed. The decision of a New York prosecutor to raise criminal charges against Trump last month caused a “closing of ranks” around the former president – they see it as a political persecution – that resurrected him in the polls and deprived his potential rivals of oxygen. .
While Biden’s age may give many pause, the prospect of Trump winning the presidency again generates panic and guarantees full party unity.
Although the party’s primary elections don’t start until next year, Trump already has almost 50 percent of the party base today. Enough to win the nomination by competing against 5-10 other candidates who will split the rest.
A reality that puts Biden back, once again, as the only one who can stop it. That is, a repetition of the 2020 elections, but in reverse.
“Elections in the United States work like Wall Street: fear and greed. And while Biden’s age may make many think, the prospect of Trump winning the presidency again generates panic and guarantees the total unity of the party, “says Allan Lichtman, professor of history at American University.
In any case, it is a controversial decision that the Democrats did not arrive at for good. In fact, a recent report by The Washington Post and titled ‘Democrats reluctant to Biden in 2024, but see no other option’, shows how the electorate faces a kind of ordeal.
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To put it in context, it is enough to review the surveys of the last 12 months. On average, no more than 40 percent of Democrats are inclined to nominate Biden for the party’s nominee. By contrast, during the years of Trump’s presidency, 73 percent of Republicans supported him for another four years. And in the case of Barack Obama that number was over 75 percent or more.
But when asked if they will vote for him if he faces Trump, the answer is overwhelming. “Biden may be an old and boring guy, but I prefer old and boring to chaotic and delinquent,” Harvey Richards, a resident of Fairfax, Virginia, told this newspaper. Criminal, he says, since Trump is already being prosecuted for hiding the payment from a porn actress and another woman who accuses him of having raped her, plus other accusations that are pending for tax fraud and his possible intervention in the 2020 electoral process.
Uphill but…
Even so, the president will not have it easy. The race begins with very poor popularity ratings – 42 percent, according to the average of 538 – and the tide is against it, given the control of the Republicans in the House of Representatives, which they are using to block their entire legislative agenda.
And while there are signs that inflation is coming to a head, cost overruns on goods and services continue to weigh heavily on Americans’ wallets. In fact, in the polls Biden gets the worst grades in the management of the economy, perhaps the issue that most influences the electoral process. And ahead of him he has many unpredictable events, such as the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine war, to mention just one.
But what worries the most is the issue of age. And not simply for a numerical aspect. Although Biden is famous for his gaffes, these have increased over the years and there are doubts about his resilience for what promises to be a tough campaign and his level in a one-on-one with Trump in televised debates.
But the president also has a lot to offer. His supporters note, for example, that the president has restored stability to the country after Trump’s chaotic years in the White House, which culminated as a serious challenge to the democratic system after the ignorance of the election results and the violent takeover of the Capitol. on January 6, 2021.
“President Biden inherited the deepest crises in generations and reversed them to deliver unprecedented job growth, the largest infrastructure investments in 70 years, the new power of Medicare to negotiate lower drug costs, the industry’s biggest resurgence in modern history and a robust environmental agenda” said Andrew Bates, White House spokesman, illustrating this point.
And to a large extent that will be the axis of his campaign: highlighting the achievements and contrasting his mandate with the extreme vision of a Republican Party that has called into question democratic values and is pushing measures – such as restrictions on the right to abortion – that will go against the sentiment of the majority.
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On the other hand, Trump, his most likely rival, is not a young man either – he would reach the White House at 78, the same age Biden was when he took the reins in the Oval Office – and he carries an unfavorable opinion worse than Biden’s. : 54 percent.
In every poll this month, it’s worth noting, Biden beats Trump in a potential matchup. But the margins are narrow and there is still a long way to go.
The ‘vices’ will be key
For this reason, many have begun to look at the vice presidencies as a factor that could tilt the result. Trump, for example, might lean toward someone like former North Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who as a wife and daughter of immigrants might soften her image with the opposite sex and minorities.
In Biden’s case, Since Harris hasn’t hit, there’s even talk of his possible replacement. But it is something that seems unlikely, since his departure, if it was not voluntary, would not go down well with a sector of the Democratic Party.
Regardless of how that is decided, everything indicates that the 2024 election will be a contest between two old rivals. And your outcome will be to rent a balcony.
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SERGIO GOMEZ MASERI
TIME CORRESPONDENT
WASHINGTON@sergom68
#calculations #Joe #Bidens #reelection