He Government has committed to Brussels to reduce the public deficit of Spanish public administrations up to 2.5% in 2025, but today few believe it can achieve it. The consensus of analysts points to a deficit … Of 3%, the Independent Fiscal Responsibility authority does not believe that this threshold is going to get off before 2026 and international analysts do not see elements that lead them to think that the deficit can be placed below 3% this year.
The economic area of the government It shows no restlessness regarding a possible deviation of that objective, but the unpublished chain decisions guided by the fiscal containment accumulated in this start of the year have encouraged a growing concern about the state of the accounts.
The controversial decision to submit for the taxpayer for the first time to the minimum wage’s perceptors, a maneuver that can leave in the State box about 150 million extra euros in retentions and save it hundreds of millions of euros more for the non -reduction of The taxable bases of lower income taxpayers, has been the last pull of an increasingly perceptible trend and has as main affected the autonomous communities.
Financial suffocation
“They are leading us to a situation of financial suffocation,” the Minister of Valencian Treasury lamented a few days ago, Ruth Merinoin an interview with ABC. He referred among other things to the government’s stingy with the deliveries on account of the 2025 resources of the financing system.
The Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, has loaded against the PP for not supporting a decree that improved 0.7% the monthly transfers received by the CC.AA. compared to last year (about 60 million per month in total to be distributed between all) when a 9.5% rise had been committed (which would have meant 1,000 million per month). The entanglement created with the Omnibus decree will cause the matter not to resolve the autonomies have to move forward with the same resources they received in 2023 with a Set monthly damage for the coffers of regional governments of about 2,000 million of euros, which will remain in cash.
From the Valencian Community and the Community of Madrid has warned that this situation puts in a serious commitment to provide services public. The scenario is much more serious in the case of the Valencian Community, an already undeconed region than at a time when it has to make an effort to alleviate the consequences of the DANA is with its main source of fiscal resources -the transfers of the State by the financing system and without the certainty that it will have the financial lifeguard of the extrafla, which allows autonomies with a more fragile situation to finance their deficit deviations with cheap money from the state.
Every month that this mess is not resolved about 2,000 million euros that should go to the box of the autonomous communities They stay in the state coffers.
The resistance of the Treasury to provide compromised account deliveries as long as there is an increasingly unlikely Vital to thousands of users have triggered rumorology that the State could be going through difficulties To face the payments committed in January, something that is rejected in a taxative manner from the Government and that unofficial sources of the State intervention are not likely.
Even so, the indications that a new stage of financial prudence has opened are accumulated. In a context of debt reduction and deficit, Treasury has decided to raise its net debt emissions in 2025 after four years of reductions. The explanation? “Have a sufficient financial mattress to face uncertainty.”
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