The assault on the democratic institutions of Brazil it was not a spontaneous “accident”. Conspiracy plots and calls for a military coup have been circulating on far-right social media for months and unsurprisingly intensified after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated Jair Bolsonaro in October’s presidential election. past. And they went off in the days leading up to protests eight days ago that rocked Latin America’s largest country.
This violent attack constitutes the most significant threat to the largest democracy in Latin America since the 1964 coup, which led to two decades of military dictatorship.
Most of the militants who attacked the National Congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace at the same time were threatening fans. Like most of the insurgents who stormed the United States Capitol two years ago, they used the occasion to destroy offices and take photos (even with several police officers seeming reluctant to intervene). This violent attack constitutes the most significant threat to Latin America’s largest democracy since the 1964 coup, which ushered in two decades of military dictatorship.
The idea from far-right protesters that the 2022 election was somehow ‘stolen’ from Bolsonaro is not surprising. For years, Bolsonaro, his children and a handful of advisers, influencers and political operators known as the ‘cabinet of hate’ they have fed their followers a constant diet of misinformation.
The goal was always undermine the foundations of democracy itself. During Bolsonaro’s four years in power, he and his allies challenged the integrity of the electoral process and trumpeted the spurious claims of rigged elections and malfunctioning electronic voting machines. Bolsonaro then lit the fuse for the attack and fled the scene of the crime. Instead of participating in Lula’s inauguration—following the country’s democratic tradition—he went to a rented house in Orlando, Florida. And he has denied any involvement in the behavior of his followers.
Relations between what happened in the US and Brazil
The parallels between the violent protests in Brazil and the January 6, 2021 insurrection in the United States are also not an accident. Bolsonaro is a fervent admirer of former President Donald Trump and has been mentored by former Trump aides such as Steve Bannon and Jason Miller, including in the weeks since his election loss. After meeting with Trump and his aides in November, Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo circulated a video of Bannon spouting conspiracy theories about Lula’s alleged use of voting machines to steal the election.
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After the January 6 insurrection in the United States, Eduardo Bolsonaro said that if the protesters had been more organized, “they would have the firepower to guarantee that no one (among the protesters) died, and that all the policemen were killed.” inside —or to the congressmen that they hate so much. Bannon has since hired Eduardo Bolsonaro to serve as the South American emissary. for his own global populist campaign, The Movement.
Like Trump in 2020, Bolsonaro refused to recognize the election. On the contrary, he and his children strongly questioned the validity of the process, tried to reverse the results in courtThey challenged the legitimacy of the president-elect and urged his supporters to take to the streets.
Some of Bolsonaro’s most devoted supporters answered the call. They set up physical camps in Brasilia, organized protests, encouraged truckers to put up barricades and spread messages on social networks defending a military intervention to prevent Lula from assuming power — a goal that the Bolsonaro family used to suggest in the past. When the expected coup failed to materialize, Bolsonaro’s most devoted supporters took matters into their own hands.
The insurrection quickly died down after Lula declared a federal emergency. More than 1,400 protesters were arrested. However, as in the US, millions of Brazilians were shocked to see their capital so easily invaded. The main government agencies of the country were violated in minutes And while there are responsibilities to be shared, much of the attention has been focused on the capital district governor, his head of public safety, and the colluding state police.
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Within hours, the attorney general’s office requested the arrest of Brasilia’s secretary of Public Security (who had previously been Bolsonaro’s justice minister) and the Supreme Court suspended the Brasilia governor for 90 days, while the trial is underway. a thorough investigation. Lula, his Minister of Public Security and Justice and the Supreme Court have promised to prosecute all those involved.
The restoration of order does not mean that Brazilian democracy is safe. While the insurrection may unify parts of society against radical extremism, social media activity already suggests that polarization could deepen in a country that is already sharply divided. Many militant and right-wing protesters will be emboldened by his attack.
Some of those who were transferred to prison will be considered martyrs and heroic defenders of freedom. By classifying them as “terrorists” and “fascists”, the government and the traditional media they risk alienating millions of more moderate Bolsonaro supporters.
Democracy can never be taken for granted. The headquarters buildings of the so-called ‘three powers’, which were looted, were the same places where an exultant inauguration ceremony took place just a few days ago. Democracies begin to crumble when large segments of the population lose faith in institutions and mistrust elected authorities and public officials.
Democracies begin to crumble when large segments of the population lose faith in institutions and distrust elected authorities and public officials.
And as we have seen in Brazil and many other democracies around the world, social media tends to speed up this process, especially when fueled by elected leaders who are hostile to democracy, as was the case with Trump and Bolsonaro.
(More: The debate over gas cookers that became a political issue in the US.)
Bolsonaro left office facing more than 152 requests for impeachment, many of them for abuse of public office.
Lula’s government today faces a gigantic challenge. Investigate violent protests and restoring faith in democratic institutions will dominate the political agendadiverting attention from efforts to address pressing social, economic and environmental issues.
Just under half of Brazil’s voters will continue to support Bolsonaro or view Lula and his Workers’ Party with lingering suspicion over the corruption scandals of his previous presidency in 2003-10. While the scenes of vandalism this weekend may be disgusting to most Brazilians, mishandling consequences could deepen feelings undemocratic. As in the United States, arresting and imprisoning insurgents is the easy part. Healing the divisions that motivated them will be a much more difficult task.
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ROBERT MUGGAH
PROJECT SYNDICATE
SAO PAULO
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