The European Stock Exchange has lived a spectacular start of the year, with increases above 15%, which have finally been moderating in March by Trump’s tariff threats. These promotions have allowed the European reference to recover its historical maximums, levels to which it has taken 25 years, from the technological bubble, and that is that before each sign of recovery in the parquet a crisis appeared that again limited the advances.
However, Ibex 35 has managed to maintain its advance without radical changes. In the middle of the week it accumulated an annual rise of 16%, although in the last session he corrects more than 1% as a reaction to the meeting of the Federal Reserve of the United States. Although the total return Ibex has managed to emulate Eurostoxx 50 and quote in its historical stops -the 12,850 points -, the Ibex without dividends is still 17% to play again at its highest levels in history. AND, On average, the values that make up the index are 40% of recovering these historical maximums.
And, despite the fact that the geopolitical context is complicated for the bags on this side of the Atlantic with each word that Donald Trump pronounces with respect to the tariffs, the IBEX has managed to stay above 13,000 points, levels not seen in his price for 17 years, while his historical maximums obtained them before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.
The peak for the Spanish Stock Exchange was in full boom real estate in 2007when he managed to conquer the 15,945 points, unlike the European Stock Exchange, which managed to write down his greatest prices in the firms bubble Puntocom. But although the index has managed to approach its highest brands, the Ibex firms have on average on the way to go to recover their maximums. The ones that are farther are colonial, Sacyr and Telefónica. On the other hand, Iberdrola and Aena are practically quoting at their maximums of the whole story, less than 1% of its levels stop.
Colonial, Sacyr and Telefónica
Colonial is light years to quote again in its historical maximums, which it obtained at the end of 2006, A Socimi action asserted up to 1,423 euros in the parquet (Intradía Maximum) in the time of Luis Portillo, before the rise of real estate investment that ended up triggering a global crisis beyond brick, that began in the heart of Manhattan with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.
This data brutally contrasts with the value of a socimi title today, which does not exceed 5.5 euros, with an annual 5.4% rise, although the best levels of this year touched them at 5.7 euros. The market consensus that FACTSET collects that the target price of a title of Colonial is at 6.5 euros, which implies a 18% potential for the next 12 months. One of the analysis houses that sees a larger tour for the company is rent 4, which values the action by 8.5 euros. ???????
For its part, Sacyr has fallen 92% from its best brand: the 42,976 euros, to the surroundings of the 3 euros that its action is worth, after its 4% revaluation in the year. The infrastructure group lived a history similar to that of Socimi, although its hegemony was such in the Spanish market that BBVA tried, an operation that finally did not come afloat. On the other hand, the group did carry out the acquisition of Eiffage, although it did not have the expected result and He ended up escaping the company for a series of judicial problems in Francecountry of origin of the construction firm.
In the specific case of Telefónica, the Teleco He achieved his historical maximums at the beginning of the year 2000, and practically the whole century has passed trying to recover these levels. At the beginning of the millennium, an action of the firm came to cost 27.96 euros, compared to the environment of the 4.3 euros in which it currently quotes, which implies an 85% drop. At that time, the multinational had finished implementing the Verónica operation, Taking control of its subsidiaries in Latin America, which meant impressive growth for the firm.
But entry into Germany with the explosion of UMTS licenses (Universal Mobile Telecommunications System), that is, the 3G system ended up creating a debt level in the multinational that continues to drag until this date. In the last year, the net debt ratio against Ebitda (the benefits before subtracting interest, taxes, depreciation and amortizations) reached 3.18 times, 47% more than 2.17 times of the year 2000. The purchase of the British O2 was seen as the opportunity to become the first telecommunications firm in Spain, and the most important fifth in the German country, An operation whose result was the opposite and the price continues to suffer the consequences.
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