The Arab Strategic Forum, in cooperation with the Risks “Control” Foundation, which specializes in studying risks and opportunities, issued the report “5 Drivers of Risks and Opportunities in the Arab World during the Next Five Years,” which provides an analysis of the events and changes that the Arab region has witnessed over the past two decades, in addition to identifying opportunities and risks. Which would stimulate political and economic change over the next five years.
The issuance of the report coincides with the holding of the Arab Strategic Forum in Dubai today, under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, “may God protect him,” with the participation of an elite group of officials from various parts of the world, in addition to strategic experts. And thought leaders in politics and economics.
Seize opportunities
The report confirmed that there were major events that occurred during the past 20 years that reshaped the Arab world, including devastating wars and political crises, the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the protests that occurred in a number of Arab countries in 2011, in addition to the “Covid 19” pandemic, which cost… The region's economies suffered losses worth $200 billion.
The report explained that these events moved the global system from a unipolar to a multipolar one, and formed five factors driving risks and opportunities in the Arab world, which are: “Adaptation for Prosperity: How can the Arab world define its role in light of a changing global system?” and “Sands.” Animated: Alliances and Rivalries Continue to Reshape Regional Politics,” “Clash of Old and New: The Arab World Resolves Its Disputes on Its Own,” “Taking the Lead with Economic Diversification and Leading the Energy Transition,” and “New Opportunities and Challenges: Driving the Prospects for Economic Growth in 2024 and beyond.
The report considered that the ongoing global economic recession will pose a challenge to the growth of the Arab world in the next five years, as inflation will continue due to geopolitical influences, questioning the ability of the Arab world to overcome challenges and seize opportunities to strengthen its position in the new world order.
The report said that during the next five years, the governments of the Arab region, in light of the increasing pace of their influence and increasing interaction with international issues, need to confront reality and deal with facts and expectations at all levels, diplomatic, commercial and security, in conjunction with the establishment of new partnerships that play a pivotal role in global affairs. .
The report added, “Thanks to their vision and ambitions, Arab governments have seized and seized geopolitical and economic opportunities, transforming them into actors with growing political and economic influence on the international arena, especially within the region. Over the next five years, these powers must continue to choose the issues they want.” In its leadership and defining its role in the new world order.”
The report indicated that if mediation efforts led by Arab countries are able to advance and build on the successes of the past few years, the year 2024 would constitute an important turning point when the Arab region relies on itself to resolve old and new conflicts in the region and beyond.
20 years of reshaping the Arab world
The report stated that the past twenty turbulent years, starting with the United States’ invasion of Iraq in 2003, reshaped the Arab world and sparked the transition of the global order from a unipolar system to a multipolar structure, and these trends will continue to grow in risks and opportunities in the Arab region during the years. The next five.
The report stated that the region witnessed during the past two decades a series of major events that led to: a fundamental reconsideration of the status of the Arab region and its relations with the changing global order, in addition to rivalries, divisions and alliances that reshaped the political landscape and traditional alliances within the Arab region, in addition to a series of conflicts. – many of which are still ongoing due to the role of external actors today – which are increasingly complex across the region, and which are being addressed with new initiatives and the success of mediations led by a number of Arab countries.
He continued: “These events also led to a series of long-term visions to diversify economies and lay the foundations for a successful energy transition, and increased awareness of the necessity of developing industry, focusing on local manufacturing, developing new technologies, and attracting foreign direct investment to face future global challenges more flexibly.”
Adapt to thrive
Regarding the first factor of the five factors driving risks and opportunities in the Arab world, “Adaptation for Prosperity: How can the Arab world define its role in light of a changing global order?”, the report emphasized that the ongoing competition between the major powers, the United States of America, Russia, and China, has stimulated… Consolidating stronger ties between the countries of the South, with huge investment potential during the next five years.
The report indicated that the Arab world contributed to redirecting global trade through currency swaps and expanding trade relations, stressing that the region's leaders will face unfamiliar scenarios, circumstances, and challenges as a result of the new, unexpected relations.
The report identified the most prominent risks in that with the increasing strategic competition between the United States and China, Arab countries will face pressure to choose one camp at the expense of the other, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will also have to adapt to market changes and new energy trends, as synergy and internal cohesion will be tested. OPEC+ with the change in energy production and export plans for member countries.
The report pointed out that destabilizing security at the external and regional levels would lead to severe geopolitical tensions that would put the political and economic resilience of the Arab world to the test.
The report emphasized that the most prominent opportunities are that the ability to achieve a balance between diplomatic relations and commercial interests between the United States and China paves the way for political and economic advantages for Arab countries, and strengthening relations between the countries of the South will enable Arab countries to adopt a new role and enjoy a prominent position in structuring the system. In addition, the expansion of the BRICS group, with the entry of three new members from the most prominent Arab countries in the region, will raise the status and reputation of the Arab world.
moving sands
Regarding the second factor: “Shifting Sands: Continuing Alliances and Rivalries to Reshape the Regional Political Arena,” the report stressed the importance of regional partnerships and multilateral bodies, such as the League of Arab States, to play a greater role in regional diplomacy over the next five years.
The report stated that the failure of the nuclear agreement with Iran represents an opportunity for the region, through concerted local efforts to find a comprehensive solution to an issue that has long been controlled by non-state actors, and it could also yield broader regional benefits.
The report stated that Syria's return to the League of Arab States last May, after suspending its membership in November 2011, is an indication of the possibility of strengthening regional cooperation during the next five years, as exerting all efforts and endeavors to find collective solutions to regional problems provides space for regional dialogue and growth.
The report identified the most prominent opportunities in that both the UAE and Saudi Arabia can benefit from their integrated economies to achieve growth and prosperity in the Arab world, and the League of Arab States may constitute an engine for cooperation and security stability in the region, in addition to the diplomatic and political progress that has been achieved between Iran and the great powers. In the region since 2021, it paves the way for a solution at the local level that prevents the risk of the JCPOA collapsing.
The clash of the old and the new
As for the third factor: “The Conflict of the Old and the New: The Arab World Resolves Its Disputes on Its Own,” the report stated that insecurity on the borders of the Arab region will continue, along with old conflicts within the region in 2024, which threatens to undermine the region’s potential.
The report pointed out that the increase in the number and consolidation of non-state actors in the Arab region would complicate mediation processes in resolving disputes, bilateral engagement, and discourage investment, stressing that the Arab world can be a source of solutions to its own regional diplomatic challenges.
The report stated that reaching a comprehensive political solution to the conflict in Yemen represents a challenge during the year 2024, and that the continuation of the civil war in Sudan threatens the security vacuum and threatens the stability of the southern borders of the Arab Republic of Egypt.
Regarding the most prominent risks: The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will continue to impose economic, food, and diplomatic challenges on the Arab countries, and the ongoing conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Yemen undermine their political and economic potential, while the war in Sudan would create a gap in governance and security in the long term. In addition, enhancing the empowerment of non-state actors in a number of Arab countries may prevent conflict resolution, bilateral engagement, and investment.
As for the most prominent opportunities: Arab countries can continue to build on their achievements in mediation to settle conflicts outside the borders of the Arab world, and at the regional level, the conflicts in Sudan, Yemen, and Syria would make room for finding solutions from within the region, and a new generation of mediation efforts to settle conflicts can Led by Arab countries, it should lead to enhancing regional geopolitical and economic stability.
Economic diversification
Regarding the fourth factor, “Assuming leadership with economic diversification and leading the energy transition,” the report explained that the spread and visualization of the national vision plans paves the way for national transformation in a dynamic manner that affects all parts of the Arab world, and that developing effective human capital and confronting unemployment is a basis for achieving the promise of economic diversification within the vision plans. Pointing out that the future will be determined by renewable energy, as the energy transition is an opportunity for national renaissance and a means to enhance influence in the new global energy system.
The report identified the most prominent risks in that the unemployment rate among youth is still high in a number of the largest economies in the region, in addition to the lack of investment and enabling human resources development, which threatens to undermine ambitious plans for economic transformation, and that many Arab countries will be vulnerable to the dual challenges of… In economic diversification away from oil and adopting new energy systems to reduce global warming, in addition to innovating other sources to provide safe drinking water.
The report said that the most prominent opportunities are that Arab countries’ commitment to national vision plans contributes to advancing economic success, in addition to continuing to enable and harness renewable energy in many countries of the region will lead to reducing government and consumer costs and enhancing energy security. The Arab world also enjoys With a prominent position to be a prominent player in the new global energy system represented by renewable energy and the expansion of the international electricity transmission network and hydrogen energy.
New opportunities and challenges
As for the fifth factor, “New Opportunities and Challenges: Directing Economic Growth Prospects in 2024 and Beyond,” the report explained that, thanks to the support of national vision plans, the technological renaissance and commitment to the solutions of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will enhance national added value (ICV) and develop regional value chains, and will also lead to The growth of public and private financing has significantly boosted investment across the region, but tightening environmental, social and governance (ESG) guidelines and regulations in major key markets may pose an obstacle.
The report stated that the Arab world is still vulnerable to external shocks – from food prices to benchmark interest rates – but that it is in a strong position that allows it to better address these shocks and move forward towards growth and development during the next five years.
Regarding the most prominent risks, the report considered that achieving a large-scale strategic transformation in some Arab countries that are witnessing ongoing conflicts will be difficult despite the stability of their macroeconomics, and strict environmental, social and corporate governance standards and anti-green camouflage standards will raise the regulatory and political risks for companies investing in the world. In addition, the possibility of a global economic recession and the continuation of some inflationary pressures in the Arab world during 2024 could lead to the generation of economic headwinds.
The report stated that the most prominent opportunities lie in the fact that enhancing investment in advanced technology, artificial intelligence, and the digital economy throughout the Arab region would contribute to improving economic performance, and technology-focused development in the industrial sector could create value-added exports that benefit. For the entire Arab region, private capital investments, along with investments from sovereign wealth funds, can also advance the energy transition and contribute to achieving the goals of national green visions.
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