Although it seemed to be tense for a while, Lai Ching-te, the candidate of the ruling Democratic-Progressive Party (DPP), was elected as the new president of Taiwan on Saturday with 40 percent of the votes. His opponent Hou Yu-ih of the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) remained stuck at 34 percent. Together with his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, an experienced diplomat, Lai stands for continuity. Like outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, they want to protect Taiwan's status as an independent democracy without escalating relations with China, which also claims the island.
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Even more than about China, for many voters these elections were about domestic themes, such as the tight housing market and low economic growth. This is also evident from the surprising emergence of a third candidate, Ko Wen-je, who can also be called a winner of these elections with 26 percent of the votes. Ko, former mayor of Taipei, has emerged as a listening ear for younger generations who are struggling in the current economic climate. “Because I never gave up, you can't give up either!” he said during a rally on the eve of the elections that attracted more than a hundred thousand young people. A vote for the People's Party founded in 2019 by 'professor' or 'uncle' Ko was a protest vote against the age-old conflict between the 'greens' and the 'blues'.
Chinese print
China sees the DPP as the representative of a Taiwanese identity separate from China and would have preferred a KMT victory. On election day, Taiwan's defense ministry reported that it counted eight Chinese aircraft and six Chinese ships around the island, typical of recent years as China has increased military pressure on Taiwan. According to Frans-Paul van der Putten, China expert at the Clingendael Institute, it is expected that now that the DPP remains in power, China will also continue its current policy – a combination of economic cooperation and increasing military pressure.
This military threat is not only aimed at the island itself, but also at the United States, which has strengthened ties with Taiwan since 2016. “An important difference with previous elections is that the China-Taiwan relationship is overshadowed by the relationship between China and the US,” said Van der Putten. As long as China and the US continue to worry more about each other and respond by mutually increasing economic and military pressure, the risk of conflict will increase. “There is a good chance that Taiwan is the reason for this. This makes the elections in Taiwan more important than before for the rest of the world, including Europe.”
At the moment, tensions between the two superpowers are not at a fever pitch, and the initial reactions of both parties to the DPP victory also indicate that the status quo will be maintained. In line with slightly improved China-US relations in recent months, the China Taiwan Affairs Office said Lai's victory will not fundamentally change the landscape of China-Taiwan relations, although future reunification remains “inevitable.” Biden, in turn, says the US does not support Taiwanese independence.
No majority in parliament
But the context of this broader geopolitics means that Taiwanese politics inadvertently remains globally relevant. The new DPP government faces more challenges than its predecessor, now that it has lost its majority in parliament during these elections. In parliament, the KMT won 52 seats, against 51 for the DPP. In this new composition of parliament, the DPP will have to make many compromises and a key role is reserved for the Ko People's Party (8 seats). The results of the parliamentary elections, which also punished the DPP as a ruling party, show how Lai's victory is also the result of the lack of cooperation between the opposition parties.
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This is the first contribution from NRC's new correspondent in Beijing, Tabitha Speelman.
