Ahmed Atef (Cairo)
The US presidential election race has become more heated after Biden’s decision to withdraw and Kamala Harris announced that she will run in his place. Although 50 states and the District of Columbia are participating in the vote, 6 states stand out as the most influential in determining the final result, and analysts consider them the real arena of competition that determines the outcome on the way to the White House.
There are about 240 million eligible voters in this year’s U.S. election, but a relatively small number of them are likely to decide who will become the next president: the residents of the swing states. The six states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Both the Republican and Democratic parties are focusing their efforts on winning over undecided voters.
American political analyst Devin O’Sullivan told Al-Ittihad: The states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the most important in determining the outcome of the elections, and Michigan decided the winner of the presidential elections in the previous two rounds, and decided the result in Wisconsin by a difference of less than 20,000 votes in the last two rounds. He added that if Trump manages to win two of the three states without losing Georgia or Arizona, he will most likely be closer to winning, while if Kamala Harris manages to win these three states, her chances of winning seem great, especially since Michigan and Wisconsin traditionally vote for the “Democrats.”
Although Arizona supported Joe Biden in 2020, the rise in migrants on the Arizona-Mexico border during Biden’s presidency is a major point that could swing the vote toward Trump, according to O’Sullivan.
The same is true in Pennsylvania, where residents are feeling the pinch of inflationary cost of living, and food prices have risen more than in any other state. Nevada voted Democratic in the last election, but there are signs that it may turn Republican.
American political analyst Irina Tsukerman explained that the electoral battle is largely related to getting out the votes of each party, and that independent voters are unlikely to follow Trump, and the matter depends a lot on the Democratic Party’s choice of its candidate.
Zuckerman told Al-Ittihad that the best option for Democrats is to nominate a governor from a swing state, who is politically moderate, such as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, noting that Colorado could be decisive, but the outcome ultimately depends on key constituencies rather than states because of the expectation that the election will be close.
The American political analyst believes that the biggest challenge for Democrats is the current political record unless they can distance themselves from Biden’s failures and present a new vision to voters, otherwise they may lose.
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