Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen arrived in Kyiv on February 16 with the first high-level official visit since the beginning of the special operation in Ukraine. As part of the trip, the head of the Israeli Foreign Ministry announced support for the “peace formula” of President Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as a loan of up to $200 million. However, the main issue for Kyiv in the current realities – the supply of weapons – is still hanging in the air. Despite the fact that Israel supports the Ukrainian side, the country’s authorities are unlikely to approve the shipment of weapons to Ukraine in the near future, experts predicted in an interview with Izvestia. Such a step would lead to the crossing of the “red lines” marked by Moscow, which would not be in the hands of the authorities of the Jewish state..
Winter visit
The head of the Israeli Foreign Ministry announced his plans on the morning of February 16, and Cohen’s schedule turned out to be very tight: a visit to Bucha, a visit to Babi Yar in Kyiv – one of the largest places of executions of Jews during the German occupation of Ukraine. In addition, the list of cases included the resumption of the work of the Israeli embassy in Kyiv, suspended due to the start of a special operation, as well as meetings with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.
It is noteworthy that shortly before Eli Cohen’s trip to Ukraine Kyiv, according to the portal Wallaput forward a number of demands. Thus, Israel was urged to condemn the actions of Russia, to approve a request for a loan of $500 million., provide assistance in the treatment of victims of hostilities and support Zelensky’s plan to resolve the conflict. However, the Israeli side has already agreed with the last point.
“I told Foreign Minister Kuleba that Israel to support Ukrainian peace initiative at UN next week”, the Foreign Minister assured at a joint press conference.
How betrays The Jerusalem Post, a 10-point plan will be presented to the UN General Assembly next week. Zelensky spoke about the “peace formula” back in November last year at the G20 summit. In particular, it includes such conditions as radiation, nuclear, food and energy security, the release of prisoners, the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, the withdrawal of Russian troops and the cessation of hostilities.
Besides, Cohen promised that Israel would help develop an attack warning system, and also said that the country would provide loan guarantees up to $200 million to Kyiv. for healthcare and civilian infrastructure projects.
“Israel, as stated earlier, is firmly in solidarity with the people of Ukraine and remains committed to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country,” he said.
At the same time, Dmitry Kuleba stressed that “humanitarian aid is important, but first of all it is important to win.” He also recalled that Kyiv handed over to the Israeli government a “list of military needs” and is now awaiting the adoption of “relevant decisions.” Despite the support of the Ukrainian side, the Jewish state still has not agreed to send weapons to Kyivas the countries of the collective West have done and continue to do.
As for the meeting with the Ukrainian leader, Cohen noted that it was “important and positive.” He also promised that Israel will expand the assistance it already provides, and together with partners will take part in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
— The arrival of Eli Cohen should be considered, for starters, as diplomatic support for Ukraine. Indeed, this visit is symbolic, at least because it is the first trip of a high-ranking Israeli politician to the country. However, it should not be taken as an obvious willingness to provide military or political support– Sergey Melkonyan, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Applied Political Research, told Izvestia.
Weapon consequences
In October 2022, when Kyiv once again called for the transfer of missile defense systems, The New York Times wroteWhat among the “reasons” for which Israel will not send weapons to Kiev are the continued military presence of Russia in Syria, as well as the presence of military bases of the Russian Federation and Russian air defense systems S-400 in Khmeimim and Tartus. Israeli officials then clarified: the country will not take risks and cross the “red line” in relations with Russia for the sake of Ukraine because of the risk of losing communication channels with Moscow through the military.
— I do not think that the visit of Eli Cohen to Kyiv will change the alignment or position of Israel. The country will not support Kiev with weapons, in my opinion, just as it did not support it when the conflict was in its infancy,” Khatib Samir, a member of the Israeli parliamentary party Hadash, told Izvestia.
According to him, the trip of the head of the Foreign Ministry is more aimed at the domestic public: the new government of Benjamin Netanyahu wants to prove to the Israeli society that he also has the opportunity to intervene in the settlement and try to reconcile Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
As the leading researcher of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Historical Sciences Boris Dolgov noted, the authorities of the Jewish state are under pressure, primarily from the United States, in the arms issue. At the same time, Israel is a strategic ally of the United States, and its position, as a rule, is determined by “following in line with Washington’s policy,” he explained to Izvestia.
– It is unlikely that Israel will start supplying lethal weapons in the near future. Nevertheless, statements that he supports the Kiev regime are coming, as they have done before. Now this position is being developed, which is expressed in the visit of Eli Cohen, the expert suggested.
At the same time, Sergei Melkonyan admitted that in the future, Israel may still provide Ukraine with assistance in the form of weapons.
— However, Russia has red lines on this issue. Therefore, it is important that any support to Ukraine is not directed directly against the Russian Federation.. For example, the supply of offensive weapons or joining the sanctions regime. However, the choice of options is not so great. An option could be Israel’s approval of the supply of its weapons by third countries, the expert suggested.
As Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine, reminded Izvestiya, Israel is the largest manufacturer of high-precision weapons.
“This country has a developed military-industrial capacity for the supply of attack drones, guided missiles of various classes, precision-guided munitions, anti-tank weapons, air defense and missile defense systems, the Iron Dome is one of them. This is a serious player, he pointed out.
In his opinion, Russian diplomats and the military should work with the Israeli leadership, explaining that the start of sending weapons to Kyiv will negatively affect Israel’s security. In this situation, the Russian Federation, for example, can open the corresponding supplies and strengthen military-technical ties with Iran, he admitted.
— Full accession to the sanctions and the supply of weapons to Ukraine will mean a violation of the “red lines” if this is not discussed with the Russian side in advance. Partial accession or the supply of weapons that are not so significant in terms of quantity and quality may not cause a sharply negative reaction from Moscow. However, if the two indicated conditions are violated, this will directly affect the relations of the countries, Sergey Melkonyan predicted.
Now Moscow is trying to maintain a balance of power and interests, which will allow leveling the risk of clashes between Iran and Israel.. Curtailing cooperation between the Russian Federation and Israel in this area can lead to tragic consequences, the expert admitted. In the Syrian direction, the situation is more sensitive. If the deconfliction mechanism ceases to operate, we can expect the active work of the air defense system in Syria against the Israeli Air Force, which will violate the airspace of the Arab Republic. Such a prospect is contrary to the interests of both Israel and Russia, which wants to maintain the stability that has been made possible through hard and long efforts, he concluded.
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