A new study of American researchers estimates that the Republicans' stance on climate change not only cost Donald Trump the 2020 presidential election but will likely make a difference in favor of Joe Biden in 2024.
The article is written by three researchers from the University of Colorado, one from Vanderbilt University and one from the University of California.
The survey, released on January 17, is based on opinion polls carried out among voters and uses statistical models to estimate the possible results of the November presidential election.
The study authors' logic is simple: the climate agenda has become increasingly important to American voters; and as the item moves up the priority list, the Democratic Party benefits.
According to the article, concern about the environment is relevant especially among Democrats and independents, but also among younger and more moderate Republicans. “Most Republicans under 35 (59%), independents (72%), and Democrats (92%) agree that climate change will harm future generations,” the study states.
In the estimate made by the authors of the new study, if concern about the issue had remained at 2016 levels, the difference between Joe Biden and Donald Trump would have fallen by 3.4% — which would probably have changed the winner of the dispute.
The study was published by the Center for Environmental Futures at the University of Colorado.
In a survey carried out by ABC News last year, 39% of voters said they trusted the Democrats on the issue of climate change, while only 13% said they trusted the Republicans.
Despite the prediction made in the new study, most of the most recent election polls show Trump ahead of Biden, with a small advantage for the Republican over the Democrat.
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