The time has come. After 10 consecutive interest rate increases – a cycle that began in July 2022 to fight runaway inflation – the monetary body has decided to pause. A long-awaited respite for the market that, however, does not translate at the moment into increases in the stock markets, which are now awaiting Christine Lagarde’s speech to try to get new clues regarding the future of monetary policy.
The consensus expects the president of the ECB to confirm that the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy has picked up speed in recent months, although she will undoubtedly leave the door open for the institution to act again if necessary. That is, there will be new rate increases later if inflation, especially the underlying rate – which does not include fresh food or energy in its calculation – refuses to moderate.
For now, investors must deal with a hectic day in which the new wave of business results and the publication of the US GDP will also have an impact, which will also mark the next decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the US. Thus, and After falling 1% in the most tense moments of the session, the Ibex-35 minimally moderates the red numbers to 0.8%, with 8,900 points still at risk.
In any case, the fall could be greater if it were not for the good reception of the accounts of some of its values to avoid giving up that level. This is the case of Banco Sabadell, which on Thursday leads the table with a rise of 5% after surprising with a record profit that exceeded 1,000 million euros, 44% more, in addition to announcing an improvement in shareholder remuneration.
Iberdrola also supports the increases with an advance of 1% after announcing a profit of 3,637 million euros, 17% more.
However, the rise in these values only serves for the moment to cushion the red numbers presented by other listed companies, such as Inditex or Aena, which are down more than 1.5% and become the most bearish of the session.
“At the moment, and despite the oversold nature of many securities and most indices, we see it as difficult for a stock market recovery to occur, at least in the very short term,” say Link Securities analysts.
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