Currently, 71% of the world’s population lives in autocracies. 20 years ago that figure was 50%. Of the 91 countries considered democratic, only 32 are liberal democracies (15 years ago there were 43). More data: if in 2003 there were 35 countries that were democratizing, today there are 18. And the most serious thing: if in 2003 there were only 11 countries that were autocratizing, today there are 42.
The trend is evident and the historian specializing in far-right Steven Forti warns of the danger in his latest book ‘Democracies in extinction: the specter of electoral autocracies’ (Akal). These forces are the actors “who are most forcefully carrying out this murder of democracy.” Donald Trump, in the United States, may be next.
Trump is no longer the unknown candidate of 2016 who faced a rival linked to the establishmentHow do you explain the great current support despite knowing him much better?
The same question can also be asked in the case of [Jair] Bolsonaro in Brazil, who although he has lost elections, has maintained a very high level of support. The far right is successful for structural reasons. Beyond the fact that a leadership may be considered by the population to be very radical, extremist or even unpresentable, this candidate has managed to forge a connection with a part of the population that goes beyond politics and has to do with the affective and the emotional.
Let’s add two other elements: the strong polarization and radicalization of what a while ago was called the center-right or traditional right. If we add all this up, we see how a figure that seems unpresentable to us has managed to unite an electorate that is highly mobilized against a political adversary who is considered an enemy and a real threat to a series of values and a way of life.
As he says, Trump has absorbed practically the entire American traditional right. Despite the particularities of the two-party system in the US, does this danger exist in Europe?
Of course. We already have enough reliable evidence of this. Let us think for example of Italy, where what would be the traditional right has practically disappeared or is a crutch of a coalition that is hegemonized by the extreme right, that is, [Giorgia] Meloni. Let us also think about the French case, where the Republicans have become a minority force on the right, where the hegemony is held by the lepenism. There is another country where the battle is still open: the United Kingdom. The Tories have not only radicalized in the last decade in a very obvious way, but they also have a very strong competitor, Nigel Farage, who could even cannibalize them.
Regardless of whether the system is two-party or multi-party, it is an obvious dynamic. In practically all countries, apart from a few small exceptions with question marks for the future, the traditional right has become radicalized, has clearly aligned itself with the extreme right, or has become irrelevant and even cannibalized.
Let’s not lose sight of an element. Until just over three years ago, Viktor Orbán’s party was a member of the European People’s Party and in the 1990s was considered a model of a new neoliberal democratic right represented, for example, by Aznar in Spain or the Tories in Great Britain. We have all seen and know the evolution of Orbán and his party.
Let’s add one last element: the case of Argentina. [Javier] Milei, who was certainly not a candidate we could consider moderate, won the elections in the second round thanks to the alliance offered by the traditional right represented by the macrismwho now governs with him. This has not led Milei to moderate. Sometimes the discourse of these rights is that we have to ‘Romanize’ the barbarians, that is, take them towards a more moderate path, controlling them a little and incorporating them into the system. Instead, what we are seeing is that the Romans have become barbaric.
How do you explain the danger that these forces represent to those who believe that it is an exaggeration to say that democracy is in danger, as you argue in the book?
Beyond the philias and phobias that one may have, in Hungary, Viktor Orbán has created a system of government that is no longer a full democracy. The Hungarian model is an electoral autocracy, that is, the democratic model has been hollowed out from within: the separation of powers is a mirage, information pluralism does not exist, the rights of minorities have been questioned and curtailed…
One could say that Hungary is an isolated case, but that is not true. If we analyze the places where the extreme right is governing, we see that there have been other cases of transformation from liberal democracies to electoral autocracies. Let us think, for example, of the case of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador or of [Benjamín] Netanyahu in Israel—in a more complex context due to the war and the attacks on the Palestinian population. We have also seen it in Poland for eight years and we are seeing it, although in a different way, in Italy.
Trump has managed to forge a connection with part of the population that goes beyond the political and has to do with the affective and emotional
The image of Giorgia Meloni as a moderate leader has been sold, but not only are her identity policies being strictly applied – although without raising her voice much – but her constitutional reform project is what I define as an Italian path to orbanism. Just as the occupation manu militari of public media and the purchase through businessmen who are friends of private media.
In short, there are elements and reliable evidence that Orbán’s model of illiberal autocracy, which has been in operation since 2010, is a model that other extreme right-wing parties are trying to emulate and that, in some cases, they have already managed to put into practice.
What implications does the current wave have? dedemocratizing?
We are experiencing a wave of dedemocratization. Democracy has been in sharp decline for at least 15 years, according to many indices. And the date is not a coincidence, because it is connected to the economic crisis of 2008. Is democracy going to become extinct? Are we going to be the last generation that has lived in a democratic system? This is no longer a question that can give rise to a dystopian Netflix series, but rather it is a reality that we are living and that it is good for us to consider. The data offers us a rather gloomy picture.
And although the extreme right is not the only actor that represents a threat to democracy, in the Western world the extreme right is the actor that is most forcefully carrying out this murder of democracy.
Are there any historical parallels with this phenomenon?
In contemporary times, there have been moments of advances and setbacks. The big difference with respect to the past is that liberal democracies have experienced a more or less long period in the countries in which they have been established and are more solid than then.
On the other hand, the big difference is that there have been one or more generations of people who have lived in liberal democracies and who are now moving away or are betting on other political models that even attack the democratic model by land, sea and air. liberal considering it wrong and the cause of the nation’s decline.
Virtually the entire extreme right, except for some small minority parties, has gone from wanting to dismember the European Union and leave the euro to wanting to occupy Brussels.
Why has the number of skeptics regarding democracy grown?
What democracy offered was better living conditions. In a democracy you will not only have greater freedoms compared to a past experience of dictatorship, but you will also be able to make ends meet and your children will possibly live better than you. There was a horizon.
However, what many people have experienced is that perhaps their present and future are not as good as expected. The social elevator has broken, inequalities have increased… The lack of expectation or the perception that the future will not be better affects a lot and evidently there are political actors who try to ride and capitalize on the frustrations and anxiety present in a good part of the society. population.
He says that the European extreme right has gone from wanting to dismember the EU to wanting to occupy it. What is your project?
It is evident that there are notable differences between the different far-right parties in Europe and the creation of different groups in the European Parliament is clear proof of this. Now, here we must put the lights on and a historical perspective allows us to see the evolution, transformations and updates of the extreme right at the European level.
Virtually the entire extreme right, except for some small minority parties, has gone from wanting to dismember the European Union and leave the euro to wanting to occupy Brussels. “Occupy Brussels” is a literal quote from Viktor Orbán, who has clearly led the way. It is interesting that Orbán says it, and not just Meloni, because he has created Patriots for Europe – with Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini, Vox and other groups – and is considered the most radical sector.
This shows us that the extreme right has understood that Brexit has been a failure, that trying to emulate it would be counterproductive and that the EU has notable firepower. The important thing is to touch power and modify the type of policies that are made in Brussels. To do this, they try to definitively convince the popular ones to stop looking at their center-left and look to their right, and then forge an alliance and unify the right. That is the great objective of the extreme right. Then, obviously, this unification should involve the conquest of hegemony. The Italian case of the last 30 years is a very clear political laboratory of all this.
Does this mean that the extreme right has become pro-European? Obviously not. More or less harsh Euroscepticism is still in force because the EU model they defend is that of a confederation of sovereign states where not only would the European integration process stop dead, but powers would be returned to the national states.
Despite their differences, which are many, let us not lose sight of the fact that all these formations ideologically share more things than those that separate them. That Vox has changed from one group to another without changing its ideology is paradigmatic.
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